San Diego -1 +140 over MILWAUKEE

Pinnacle -1½ +136 BET365 -1½ +140 SportsInteraction -1½ +137 BetOnlin-1½ +138 Bookmaker -1½ +140

Posted at 12:45 PM EST. 

San Diego -1½ +140 over MILWAUKEE

1:10 PM EST. Despite having only two years of professional experience and having never appeared above Single-A, Ryan Weathers (LHP - SD) is getting a serious look by the Padres and it would appear they like what they’re seeing. The seventh-overall pick in the 2018 draft, Weathers has appeared in 10 games this year with five coming as a starter. In 20 frames, Weathers has struck out 22 and walked eight but his 4.22 xERA is much higher than his surface ERA of 1.48. Now, we are usually looking to fade sparkling ERA’s that are not legit but Weathers is an exception. He’s getting progressively better with each passing appearance and his surface ERA has plenty of support in other areas. Dude features a low-90s fastball and two above-average offspeed pitches in a change and curve. His swing and miss rate last game was 14.4% and he’ll now face a Brewers nine that swings at everything and usually does not make contact.

Adrian Houser (RHP, MIL) is another starter with mid-rotation potential but he hasn’t come close to realizing it and therefore he and the Crew are getting far too much credit in the price here. Houser’s 1.40 WHIP is the product of really bad command (4% K-BB%), and looking one layer deeper, it just increases the pessimism (7.0% SwK%, 41% ball%). His only saving grace has been a steep groundball tilt (59% GB%) but even that has started to wane, as it was 44% over his last three starts. Adrian Houser has an xERA of 7.07 over his last three starts and his task today is facing a Padres’ squad that has hit well on the road, with a .718 OPS that ranks 4th in the NL. And they have hit well against RHP, with a .720 OPS that also ranks 4th.


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Our Pick

San Diego -1 +140 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)