L.A. Dodgers @ HOUSTON
L.A. Dodgers -105 over HOUSTON

Pinnacle -105 BET365 -115 SportsInteraction -112 BetOnlin-108 Bookmaker -110

Posted at 12:45 PM EST. 

L.A. Dodgers -105 over HOUSTON

8:10 PM EST. Zack Greinke (RHP - HOU) versus Clayton Kershaw (LHP - LAD) is being billed by the efficient market as a pick-em because the Dodgers opened as high as -130 at some joints before said market got a hold of it. That provides us with this outstanding opportunity to get in on the Dodgers with some outstanding value attached. 

Regular readers of this space know our position on Greinke and we promise you it hasn’t changed. His ERA is good but there are coal mine canaries everywhere. Batters are teeing off on his tepid heater just like they did last year. His xHR% says HR should be a bigger issue. Zach Greinke is not inducing grounders nor is he striking out guys. We repeat, graceful aging might be the most likely scenario, but his smarts won't be able to outrun his diminishing stuff forever. Dude has never been nore hittable than he is now.

Kershaw gave his fantasy owners a scare last year when he was scratched with back spasms on Opening Day, then popped off a vintage 10-start run. Even threw in a reversal of long-term velocity decline. There tends to be a lot of hand-wringing here, but last year's sprint season actually lends clarity: you can still take the skills to the bank and this year, Kershaw has been even better. 

Kershaw’s history of elite control is still impressive. Though he isn’t striking out batters at quite the same rate he once did, his swing & miss %/K% remains in great shape, thanks in large part to his slider (23% swing and miss on 41% usage). If it's been a while since you last took a look back at Kershaw’s amazing career, we highly recommend checking it out. While the future Hall of Famer isn’t quite as dominant as he once was, his skills are still in great shape. Kershaw comes into this start with 65 K’s, 10 walks, a 0.95 ERA and an outstanding 3.22 xERA over 10 starts covering 47 frames. He’s now priced like Greinke is his equal. Absurd. Jump on it and let’s hope the chips/justice falls our way.

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Our Pick

L.A. Dodgers -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)