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Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

San Francisco +120 over CINCINNATI

12:35 PM EST. The Giants are 27-16 and reside in first place in the toughest division in the league. The Reds are 19-22 and in fourth place in the weakest division in the NL. San Francisco has won four in a row, it is 7-3 over its last 10 and have a run differential of +42. Cincinnati has dropped three in a row, it has four wins in its last 10 games and has a run differential of -7. Advantage Frisco. No check that, BIG ADVANTAGE, Frisco.

A resurgent Johnny Cueto (RHP - SF) takes on a potentially emergent Tyler Mahle (RHP - CIN). San Francisco’s longtime starter has made just five starts divided by a DL trip, but has shown his best velocity since 2016 while Cincinnati’s man has maintained last year’s gains. Even if we give an edge to Tyler Mahle, so what. The better pitcher doesn’t always win and besides, Mahle has a 87.4% strand rate, which is in the top 5% of starters. Mahle’s 43 K’s in 38 innings is not supported by his league average 11.7% swing & miss rate. Mahle is decent enough to be sure but he and the Reds are not worthy of this price against a vastly superior team that cannot wait to get back to the park.

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