Pinnacle -1½ +132 BET365 -1½ +130 SportsInteraction -1½ +125 BetOnline -1½ +129 Bookmaker

Posted at 1:45 PM EST

SAN FRANCISCO -1½ +132 over Texas

Logan Webb (RHP - SF) has been victimized by shaky control (11% BB%) after a strong showing this spring. A mediocre 60% first-pitch strike rate and 39% ball% will keep that aspect of his game volatile. However, Webb has added more swing-and-miss to his game in 2021 (11.4%) compared to 2020 (9.3%) and his groundball rate is completely off the charts at 59%. That groundball rate has been his calling card forever so it’s not a small sample. Dude induces groundballs one after the other. Logan Webb’s 5.34 ERA is almost two full runs higher than his xERA and thus, a major correction to the good is forthcoming. 

There are no corrections coming for Jordan Lyles (LHP - TEX). Every year it’s ugly for Lyles. This year he’s sitting with a 7.09 ERA after seven starts but he only has two losses against one win so it doesn't look as bad as it is. Even with a strand percentage derailment, his expected ratios suggest his wreckage was/is deserved while his xERA/xWHIP history reveals that his "normal" is treacherous...and as far as his disaster starts % history .... it's best not to look if you’re thinking of getting behind him.

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