Pinnacle +138 BET365 +130 SportsInteraction +134  BetOnline +138 Bookmaker +130

Posted at 2:30 PM EST. 

San Francisco +138 over PHILADELPHIA

7:05 PM EST. Zach Wheeler (RHP - PHI) is Exhibit #84576 of the Early Season Challenge, What to Believe Edition. Vel/BB%/K-rate are rock solid, but swinging strikes and groundballs have veered crazily from his norm. His 10% swing and miss rate in no way supports the 20 K’s in 18 frames that he’s put up. Will this last through 30 starts, or is it just a 18-inning blip? We'll mostly defer to history for now and not fully trust what the surface stats say, especially considering his batted ball profile of 39% grounders, 31% line-drives and 31% fly-balls. That spells at least some trouble.

Buy-low/sell high is a mantra we subscribe to. Logan Webb (RHP - SF) came out of the bullpen in his last appearance, but will step back into the rotation to fill in for the injured Johnny Cueto. He has made two starts this season, which did not go well, as he allowed 15 hits, five walks, 2 jacks and six earned runs in just 10 innings. Those are surface stats. Webb has great skills evidenced by the way he sailed through the minors (3.36 ERA over 302 IP) on the strength of a big groundball rate that is still intact at an elite 56%. He also has a 14% swing and miss rate to go along with a 3.62 xERA. Logan Webb is a very decent buy-low target and it’s also worth noting, just like yesterday, that the Giants still hold a bullpen edge and strike out fewer times per nine innings than the Phillies.

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