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Posted at 3:20 PM EST. 

Arizona +170 over WASHINGTON

7:05 PM EST. A starter in the minors, Taylor Widener (RHP - ARI) made his MLB debut last year as a bullpen piece with some early success, then missed three weeks in September with a rib injury. Unfortunately, his walks-plus-HR profile from 2019 carried over, and LH bats especially found him to their liking. The Nats, however, possess a mostly right-handed hitting lineup. Widener has four above-average pitches, and prior to 2019, his control had mostly been an asset. But then came 2019. Widener's strikeout numbers remained strong (as has been the case for his career; a 10.8 K’s/9), but hitters teed up on him, and he gave up a whopping 23 long balls in only 100 innings. His pitching arsenal and college experience point to his long-term potential but we’re not here to hype up Widener because we understand he might get blown up but we shall see, This wager is not about getting behind an unproven starter.

Baseball lines are largely based on the starting pitchers. Sportsbooks won’t even put up a price until they know for sure who is starting. If one or both of the listed pitchers do not start, all bets are voided, which is further proof that the prices are based on the starters. Thing is, when Las Vegas started posting baseball lines decades ago, starting pitchers meant everything because there were no such things as pitch counts. Most starters pitched deep into games. Even in the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s, when gambling on baseball was picking up steam, it was not unusual to see a complete game. In this day and age, a complete game is almost as rare as a no-hitter. Starting pitchers are usually gone after five innings and are almost always gone after six innings. Point is, starters have far less impact on the outcome of games nowadays than ever before because starters are making between 5M and 15M per and teams’ are trying to protect their investment from injuries. In other words, there has never been a better time to wager on underdogs because starters matter less now than ever before but the lines do not reflect that. Hopefully, we can take big advantage of that “house inefficiency”.

Enter one Max Scherzer, who is perhaps the major's best starter over the past decade. However, Max Scherzer is now 36-years old and has thrown over 2400 innings covering his 13+ year career. Dude made two starts last year and has made two starts this year. The last time we saw him over a larger sample size was in 2019 when he posted a career worst WHIP of 1.38. His command wasn’t vintage, as he was hurt by a few more walks, a few more jacks and his line-drive and hit rates soared along with his ERA and WHIP. His velocity this year is down a tick to 93.6. He only has one walk in 14 frames this year but his first-pitch strike rate of 53% says more walks are absolutely forthcoming. Most alarming is Scherzer’s ground-ball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 17%/25%/58%. He’ll now face a D-Backs team that ranks 5th best in the majors in fewest strikeouts. Scherzer’s inevitable decline has begun and although it appears to be gentle enough on the surface, there are big time warning signs underneath but dude is still priced like he’s vintage Max when in fact, he is not.

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