Pinnacle +166 BET365 +165 SportsInteraction +155 BetOnline +165 Bookmaker +164

Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

Texas +166 over TAMPA BAY

7:10 PM EST. We’re not even going to discuss Jordan Lyles (RHP- TEX) because 1), we don’t trust him and 2) because this wager has nothing to do with him. This wager is all about this absurd price on both the Rays to beat Texas and on a 41-year-old pitcher that is priced today like he’s 31 and pitching for Dodgers.   

After 12 games, the Rays are 5-7 and the Rangers are 5-7. They rank 20th and 19th respectively in team OPS, and 22nd and 17th in team batting average. Both are in the Rangers favor. Perhaps Tampa is off to a slow start and they’ll kick it into gear at some point but regardless, there is nothing in Tampa’s profile or its starter to warrant this price.

As for Rich Hill (LHP - TB),  well there was a time when one could count on him for two things: strong skills and wins but those days are long home. Last year was a lucky hit %-fueled fluke with his xERA, xHR/F say it could've been much worse. His fastball has dipped to a bounce-off-glass level, which is revealed in his weak swing and miss rate. His control is wobbling, too. It's been a fun ride with the one-time curveball king, but the gig is over and frankly, it doesn’t matter the time, place or team he is facing, as Rich Hill cannot be priced in this range ever again. Serious overlay.

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