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Posted March 15

L.A. Angels

Season Win posted number is 51.5% = 83.33 wins. 

The Angels would need to go 84-78 to cash the overs and 83-79 to cash the unders

Key Additions (2021 Projected WARP): José Quintana (1.9), José Iglesias (1.2), Raisel Iglesias (1.0), Alex Cobb (0.8), Dexter Fowler (0.6), Alex Claudio (0.6), Aaron Slegers (0.3), Kurt Suzuki (0.3)

Key Subtractions: Andrelton Simmons (1.5), Julio Teheran (0.0), Keynan Middleton (0.2), Justin Anderson (0.1), Hansel Robles (0.4)

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Nothing bums me out more than writing about the Angels. If we wanted to watch a promising young man waste his prime as the light slowly leaves his eyes we’d scroll through our Facebook photos backwards.

If you’ve perused any Angels preview over the past five-or-so years, you’ve essentially already read this one. The plan is somehow STILL to provide Mike Trout with a good running mate, build a pitching staff by sorting ERA leaderboards from three seasons ago, and pretend the bullpen doesn’t exist. Sure, some of the characters have been recast, but the costumes, plot, and outcome will remain the same. It’s like an Avengers movie, but instead of a classic hero’s arc we have to watch Captain America slowly bleed out for 90 minutes as Thanos uses the Time Stone to re-sign failed Orioles “aces” over and over again. Alex Cobb, guys? Really? Really.

Angels Lineup

Stop us if you’ve heard this before: the 2021 Angels have a bloated and depressing lineup propped up entirely by two or three superstars.Trout is still here and still thriving: a little thicker in the “neck,” a quarter-step slower, and a bit too into the weather—he is a dad now, after all—but still one of the three-or-so best players in the sport. He has a lot of great baseball left in front of him, but he’ll turn 30 this August. To put that into context for Baseball Twitter, by the time Fernando Tatis Jr.’s new contract runs out, Trout will be 44. You just add by 14, you see. That’s the whole trick.

Anyway, Trout posted a Deserved Runs Created (DRC+) of 151 last season (side note: dear lord he’s good), and his new sidekick Anthony Rendon also crushed the ball to the tune of a 144 DRC+. Thanks largely to their efforts the 2020 Angels finished ninth in the majors in runs per game, yet still managed just a .433 winning percentage. That’s because the rest of this team offers as much depth as a Bachelorette contestant.

Returning members of the 2020 Angels who posted a DRC+ of league-average or better include: acceptable second baseman David Fletcher, 27-year-old first baseman Matt Thaiss “Jared Walsh,” post-post-hype catcher Max Stassi, and a walking reminder of our collective mortality, Justin Upton, who ekes his way into this group with a DRC+ of 100 flat. Let’s be generous and say half that group will repeat over a full season.

They’ll be propped up by a collection of has-beens and never-weres that rivals Fuller House. Andrelton Simmons has been replaced at shortstop by José Iglesias, which is like going from 2-percent to skim milk: you tell yourself you won’t notice the difference, but you absolutely will. Dexter Fowler has arrived via salary dump: He’s perfect for this team in that his last good season came in 2017. Albert Pujols finally seemed ready to admit he’s been unofficially retired for the better part of a decade, but later clarified he intends to stay an active member of this roster until his deal expires in 3030.

If the Angels are going to get any more out of this group than they did a year ago it’s going to have to come from two of the more interesting and at times infuriating young talents in the game: Shohei Ohtani and Jo Adell. Ohtani frustrates through no fault of his own: he just keeps getting hurt. We’ve been told to believe that Ohtani now is a “full go” both as a hitter and a pitcher, and we’ve seen brief glimpses of his ability to dazzle in both capacities. But at this point it’s fair to want to see Ohtani stay upright and productive for a full season before falling for the hype again.

Speaking of hype, there are a few people who are juuuuuust a bit too high on Adell. The dream is still very much alive—he’s just 21 but it’s not great when your rookie season is essentially a tribute to late-career Mark Reynolds. Adell still teems with upside, but seems unlikely to take the league by storm the way the way the media had hoped.

Angels Starters

Every year, there is hope the Angels will finally address their starting rotation in order to give Trout and co. a fighting chance. It never happens. Honestly, what could prompt a pitching-needy team to keep seeking out Orioles castoffs. Dylan Bundy went out and had his first good season, well, ever across 11 starts last year. New GM and potential Craig Goldstein cosplayer Perry Minasian thinks he can get lucky twice, shipping former prospect of note Jahmai Jones to the Orioles in exchange for Alex Cobb. Cobb was fine-ish in 10 starts for Baltimore last season but has otherwise been unplayable since 2017. This doesn’t end in a feel-good redemption arc: it ends with a June DFA and some bad tweets.

Had the Angels simply added Cobb as depth or an insurance policy, that’d be one thing. But it appears as though L.A. is banking on Cobb as a key contributor, as the only other starter of note they added this winter is José Quintana. To be fair, he represents an upgrade over failed fixer-upper Julio Teheran, but Q is an Angel now, so he’ll likely end up condemned all the same. Dude has been in a steady decline for three years so of course he’s an Angel now. These sad new arms join sad old arms like Andrew Heaney, Griffin Canning, and perhaps Ohtani as starting candidates. It’s an unspeakably dark truth that Heaney is the most durable among this group because he’s made 30 starts … over the last two seasons combined. If this collection of pending and past UCL implosions involved any more fallen Angels we’d have to get Gerard Butler involved.

Angels Bullpen

To be fair, getting Raisel Iglesias for the low, low cost of one Noé Ramirez was a savvy move. Plus, it means the Angels acquired two Iglesiases (Iglesiai?) this winter, and that’s just good branding. Otherwise, Minasian appears to be counting on repeat performances from Felix Peña and Mike Mayers, PLUS a return to form from either Alex Claudio or Ty Buttrey, to get this group all the way up to average. What do we think Trout did in a past life to deserve this? And my god, we haven’t even really gotten to Joe Maddon yet! You know what, that’s for the best. The only good thing about Trout being mired in mediocrity for all time is it gives us less reason to focus on his faux-hipster manager and his stupid themed roadtrips. The less time spent on Maddon, the better. Dude is “Robert De Niro left in the dryer for too long” but trust us when we tell you, he’s the reason the Cubbies almost didn’t win and not the reason they did. 

Over or under 51.5%? UNDER!

How is it going to end for the Angels? A frowny face? A slap upside the head? A number that somehow conveys the slow but inevitable march of time, or promise unfulfilled, or abject disappointment? This is going to end how it always ends: with an otherworldly performance from Trout, a below .500 record and DonnyDog63566 tweeting that if the best baseball player most of us has ever seen was actually all that, he’d at least have as many rings as John Elway has Super Bowls. One can only imagine how Trout feels, if he still feels anything at all. The Angels play in a weak division but it’s not going to matter. Oakland and Houston will beat them enough times and so will Seattle. They also play the NL West teams (Dodgers/San Fran/Arizona/Padres/Rockies) in their interleague portion of the schedule is perhaps the best division in all of baseball. Assuming nobody gets injured (which is absurd), the Halos would have a very tough time playing .500 ball. We cannot envision any scenario in which this team wins more games than they lose. (Risking 3.03 units to win 3)

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