Pinnacle +103  BET365 -105 SportsInteraction -105 BetOnline +100

Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

MIAMI +103 over Tampa Bay

6:10 PM EST. Elieser Hernández (RHP - MIA) made just six short starts before a lat injury ended his year, but that small sample size absolutely indicates progress. His swing & miss rate validates a rise in K%. His BB%/xBB% also is heading in the right direction. But beware: per exit velocity, when batters made contact, it was solid, and his minimal use of change-up suggests a lack of trust in a third pitch. However, the kid has talent and there’s a distinct possibility that he was working on refining a third pitch in the off-season. At the end of the day, he holds so much value as an underdog than Rich Hill (LHP - TB) does as the favorite.

There was a time when you'd count on Rich Hill for two things: strong skills and DL stints. Those DL stints will remain, but skills not so much. Last year was a hit%-fueled sham, and xERA, xHR/F say it could've been much worse. Hill’s fastball is dipping to a bounce-off-glass level shown in his brutal swing & miss rate of 6% last year. His control is wobbling, too. It's been a fun ride with the curveball king, but it’s coming to an end at the expense of the Rays of all teams. By the time he gets waived, cut or demoted to mop up, his first name might be Down. Keep fading until further notice.

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