Pinnacle +104  BET365 -105 SportsInteraction -105 BetOnline +102

Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

Tampa Bay +104 over MIAMI

7:10 PM EST. Pablo Lopez (RHP - MIA) is without question a breakout candidate but unlike last year, when he was under the radar, he’s absolutely, 100% not under the radar this year. In other words, the value on Lopez is gone, which doesn’t mean he and the Marlins are going to lose but it does mean there isn’t any value on betting him when he’s suddenly overpriced because every baseball publication in America has pegged him as a sleeper. He’s not a sleeper. The sleeper actually is Tampa’s starter today.

How do we know that Ryan Yarbrough (LHP - TAM) is so undervalued. Well, fantasy players will appreciate that Yarborough owned a 253 Average Draft Position (ADP) in 2021 drafts, but he has the potential to be a top 100 pick in 2022. He attacked hitters in 2020 (31% ball%) while missing a lot of their bats (13.2% swing & miss rate). Check out his swinging strike rate over his three seasons in the majors: 9.2%, 10.6%, 13.7%. Yarbrough’s 2020 win total is proof positive that he's still making payments to the baseball gods for the Great Wins Loan of 2018. Skills overall are strong, as he used his high-whiff change-up more (higher swing & miss rate) and outlandish line-drive rate was mitigated by elite soft-contact levels. With excellent control still intact, he’s much, much more than his previous role as a one or two-inning pitcher when the Rays used their “start by committee” strategy.

Finally, the Marlins racked up three hits yesterday and lost 1-0 and while one game means jack, it’s not a good feeling to be 0-4 the first day of the year. Perhaps the Marlins will be pressing a bit more today and swinging on all those nasty changes. In any event, it is Tampa’s pitcher that is undervalued and not Miami’s.

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