Pinnacle +108  BET365 +105 SportsInteraction +104 BetOnline +109 

Posted at 11:45 AM EST. 

Atlanta +110 over PHILADELPHIA

3:05 PM EST. Ahhhhh, opening day. The smell of freshly cut grass and the feeling of boundless optimism. The butterflies you get when your team’s new lineup is announced for the first time. The hope you feel in knowing that spring—life itself—is about to start. And, beyond all that, a whole new chance to increase one’s bankroll, one day, week or month at a time. 

Of course we like Aaron Nola (RHP - PHI), who doesn’t, but when we can get a price on a team like Atlanta with a pitcher like Max Fried starting, we’re going to step in more often than not. 

Nola had a little bit of an off-year in 2019 but rebounded last year with a big step forward in his previously-consistent K%. Dude posted a career-best swing & miss rate on his four-seamer, slider, and change-up. The rest of the package, including heavy groundball lean, remains steady. Nola's two-month strikeout gains might not fully hold, but this floor/ceiling combo is very attractive. Max Fried (LHP - ATL) is also attractive. 

Fried was riding high before back spasms shelved him for two starts last year and sketchy results on return dampened his "breakout" only slightly. Overall, xBB%, swing & miss rate and groundball rate say emphatically that he’s on the verge of ace status. Look to xERA, xWHIP for confirmation that he’s solid and consistent and then bet him when he’s taking back any price against anyone not named the Los Angeles Dodgers or New York Yankees.

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