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Posted March 23

Toronto Blue Jays ---Season win % over/under = 53.5% or 54%

Option 1 

53.5% of 162 games is 86.67

The Blue Jays would need 87 wins or more (87-75) to cash the overs and 85 wins or less (85-77) to cash the unders.

Option 2

54% of 162 games is 87.48

The Blue Jays would need 88 wins or more (88-74) to cash the overs and 86 wins or less (86-76) to cash the unders.

2020 Record: 32-28, 3rd in AL East

Toronto Blue Jays

Well, well, well … look who’s trying to be a credible baseball team again. It was a dark three years for the Jays between 2017-2019, a span in which they averaged just 73 wins and bled veteran talent en route to a rebuild. Last year’s short season and expanded playoff format helped the Jays sneak back into the postseason a year or two before anyone thought they’d be ready, and now expectations are mounting. The Jays have young, bona fide stars. They signed two of the top free-agent hitters on the market. They acquired at least one former Padres closer, as all ascending teams do. They have nominally improved the rotation. On paper, this is inarguably a better team than it was a year ago. Will it all be enough for Toronto to join New York and Tampa Bay as the class of the AL East? Probably not but this is still a very good team.  

Toronto’s lineup

The Jays have slowly been building a powerhouse offense; after finishing seventh in runs scored last season they doubled down on that strength by signing two of the market’s best hitters in George Springer and Marcus Semien. Springer is likely to be a legit offensive catalyst who could push this group over the top for the next year or two. Unfortunately for the Jays, they had to sign the 31-year-old to a five-year deal. Given the position he plays, the way he swings, and the number of injuries he’s collected in recent years, he’s as likely to age as gracefully as gas station sushi. Yes, if you squint, you can already see Toronto trying to get out from under his contract in 2023. On the flip side, Semien proved to be a bargain, agreeing to a one-year, $18 million pact to play second base and break up the All-Nepotism Infield. Is a dude like Semien finding himself unable to land a multi-year contract yet another bad sign for the sport? You betcha. But kudos to the Jays for convincing him to play up north. 

Springer and Semien will be joined by a collection of post-prospects that form an exciting young nucleus, but in different ways than many of us expected. Name value and prospect status aside, the best young player on this team is Bo Bichette. Despite a dog in the vet’s parking lot-level aversion to walks, Bichette has the bat, glove, and flow of a true star. To accommodate Semien, Cavan Biggio will slide from second to third this year in large part because the player who was supposed to be the next face of the franchise—Vladimir Guerrero Jr.—already needs to move to first base. 

It’d be insane to call any 22-year-old a bust, but it’s odd how little we talk about how disappointing Vladito’s career has been to date. So far, he’s only been a marginally above league-average hitter and a total defensive trainwreck who already has to move down as low on the defensive spectrum as you can get. He’s still talented enough that a breakout could lurk right around the cold corner, but there’s also a chance that the only category this Guerrero ever leads the league in is “BSOHL” spring training stories. That would be Best Shape Of His Life. 

Even the Jays without big-time prospect pedigrees are decent offensive threats. In the outfield, Springer figures to be flanked by Lourdes Gurriel Jr.—a man who somehow still has under 1,000 major-league PA despite playing in Toronto since 2004—and Randal Grichuk, who is perennially the, like, 65th-best outfielder in the game. Teoscar Hernandez should see plenty of time in the outfield as well as at DH, though you can’t rule out Vladito forcing his way into full-time DH duties by June. Can we talk about Alejandro Kirk now? He’s real, and strong. We hope he hits .320 while looking like a Weeble for the next decade. 

Jays Starters

While the Jays’ lineup is chock full of young players teeming with potential, their rotation has more downside potential than a meme stock. Hyun-Jin Ryu will be back for another year to serve as this group’s ace, and while his inning-by-inning performance is on par with some of the best pitchers in the game, it’s fair to wonder how the 34-year-old will hold up to the rigors of a full season: He’s thrown in excess of 150 innings just three times in his career. The rest of this rotation comes with more question marks than a Yandy Riddler costume. The nominal No. 2 starter here is, well, uh, that’s a good question. Here are your options: 

If you like past peak performance, the No. 2 starter is: Robbie Ray, who was re-signed to a one-year, $8 million deal after throwing 20 passable innings in Toronto last year (and 31 nightmare frames in Arizona). Jays fans can now look forward to a full season of him inexplicably shutting down the Yankees one start only to get shelled by the Orioles the next time he takes the mound.

If you like upside, the No. 2 starter is: Nate Pearson, who is basically just a CBC Michael Kopech reboot. You could tell us he’s about to start 25 games and strikeout 12 per nine or that he’ll be on the 60-day IL by May. We wouldn’t flinch either way.

If you like flashy new things, the No. 2 starter is: Steven Matz. Matz figures to tantalize for a game or two before missing the rest of the season with one arm malady or another. Honestly, there’s one massively risky lefty in this rotation. 

If you like certainty, the No. 2 starter is: Tanner Roark, whose AL East rollout went about as well as Moderna’s. Roark has one skill few other Jays starters do—he’s often available—but that’s about it. He is essentially the answer to the incredibly cursed question “what if”?  

Trent Thornton and Tyler Chatwood are also here, but … yikes. Well the good news is that between Ryu, Pearson, and Matz, these two are only like to have to make, uh, 45 starts or so  between the two of them. Can we go back to the offense yet? 

Bullpen

The Jays loved the early 2000s so much that they haven’t just acquired a ton of second-generation stars: they’ve also built an incredibly thin bullpen in homage to the game’s earlier era.  Perhaps that’s unfair—the Jays’ pen was mighty good last year. But between the small samples, the lack of recognizable names, and the dramatic gulf between what xERA says should’ve happened and what did happen last year, it’s tough to have much faith in Toronto’s bullpen pulling off a repeat. 

Kirby Yates is the big addition, and, with all due respect to Ross Stripling, is also probably the only reliever on this roster you’ve heard of. Yates’ setup crew is composed of a bunch of dudes who came out of nowhere to dominate in 12-inning sample sizes last year: Jordan Romano, Julian Merryweather, Thomas Hatch, etc. Remember Rafael Dolis? He’s in this bullpen, and he’s representative of it: the 32-year-old threw 24 innings of 1.50-ERA ball, but xERA says his ERA should’ve been closer to 4.00. Ryan Borucki has a similar story. So does T.J. Zeuch. Betting on this relief crew to repeat their performance is like buying $AMC today. 

Jays Over or Under?

No chance are we going under simply because there are 29 other options and being in Canada, we understand that most of you want to see the Blue Jays win. It’s bad karma to bet against the only major league team in our country. It also doesn’t win us any friends and lord knows, friends are important. 

The Jays are probably going to be one of the most fun teams in the majors to watch … when they’re hitting, at least. If one of Vladito or Bichette takes a half-step forward and if Springer and Semien play up to their potential, this could easily be a top-three overall offense. It’s also the most exciting kind of lineup—one full of homegrown stars and complementary big-name talents who truly know what it takes to make it to the playoffs, then lose in humiliating fashion. 

Yet as daunting as Toronto’s lineup may be, their rotation is awfully high variance and their bullpen looks to be just awful. If Ryu, Ray, Pearson, and Matz all stay healthy and productive, this could be a 100-win team. But ask yourself how likely that is to happen? Tell me you can’t see Chatwood getting shelled by the Yankees in an important August series, only to turn the ball over the next day to some ungodly combination of Roark and A.J. Cole. The long and the short of it is that this is a fun, young team on the rise, but they’re another year and another three pitchers away from playing with the big boys. The hype isn’t yet justified, and Canada is setting itself up for its biggest letdown since Montreal Expos moved to Washington. The Blue Jay season win % seems to be dead on and therefore we cannot recommend going over and we refuse to be it under (No bets).

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