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Posted at 2:30 PM EST

Cleveland -102 over MINNESOTA

8:07 PM EST Zach Plesac (RHP - CLE) has been excellent while on the mound so far in 2020 (1.32 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and just two walks issued over 34 IP). We can't dismiss that growth either. Not only has it been validated by his 14.9% swing and miss rate and 66% first-pitch strike rate, but his Statcast metrics have gone from marginal to strong. His average exit velocity has declined by 4.0 mph, while his barrel rate has gone from 8.1% to 5.9%. Plesac is a dog here because the Twinkies have an outstanding but unsustainable home record.

Rich Hill (LHP - MIN) has only reached five innings in two of his five starts. The southpaw has a pathetic 6.1% swing and miss rate, a 31% line-drive rate and walked 10 and struck out 15 in 21 innings. Rich Hill is a 39-year-old lefty that the Dodgers couldn’t wait to get rid of last year. If the Twins make the playoffs, there is a good chance you won’t see this stiff anywhere near the mound. Eight IL stints, since 2016, a boatload of mileage and turning 40 curbs his upside to the point where he’s now just an innings eater. That he’s evenly priced or even favored against Cleveland and their excellent starter is incorrect to a high degree.

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