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Posted at 12:35 PM EST.

San Francisco -1½ +185 over COLORADO

3:10 PM EST. Losing is contagious and once you get the bug, it is difficult to overcome it. The Rockies have dropped three in a row but that’s not the issue. Losing three in a row is not the end of the world and it’s not uncommon but it is the beating that has been bestowed upon them that makes them great fade material again. Colorado lost 23-5 last night. They lost 13-2 on Monday. In between those two games, they lost 6-0. In total, the Rocks have been outscored 42-7 over their last three games. That’s a lot of wear and tear, both physically and mentally, on their relievers, infielders and outfielders who all had to endure some very long innings. Frankly, it does not look like there is any relief in sight.

Kyle Freeland (LHP - COL) is coming off a shaky outing (11 hits in four innings) and has now been hit hard in three consecutive turns at Coors. The good news is that it doesn’t show that in his surface stats and therefore it makes Freeland overpriced today. Freeland’s surface stats show a 3.43 ERA after seven starts and for a pitcher that starts half of his games at Coors, that’s a tremendous ERA. What it doesn’t reveal is that Freeland has struck out a lousy 26 batters in 42 innings with a weak 8.5% swing and miss rate. His swing and miss rate last game was 6.5%. Freeland’s xERA over his last three starts is 5.89. He faced the Giants on August 2nd and they hit him that day (8 hits, three walks in 6.2 innings) but the Giants also hit into three double plays. Current Giants have posted solid numbers against Freeland in past meetings (.784 OPS). Left-handers turn the Giants around to their best platoon numbers (.806 OPS), and SF has logged an .810 OPS against all pitchers over the last two weeks.

Logan Webb’s upside isn't huge, but there's a lot to like about his profile. In just 15 career starts in the majors, Webb has already established remarkable consistency in his strikeout skills as well as his groundball rate. And because that groundball % is so high (55%), he can get by with an average-to-below-average strikeout rate. Thing is, he has 30 K’s in 31 innings although his swing & miss rate of 10% does not support those K’s. The missing piece is control, and while his walk rate has gone backwards in 2020, his minor league rates and his current first-pitch strike rate both suggest he can do better. Reducing his walks would push his xERA below 4.00, and make him a solid mid-rotation caliber starter.

Another reason to feel optimistic about his control is that his numbers are still being skewed by two particularly bad starts against Texas and Oakland where he issued nine walks over 8 innings. Over his last starts (which excludes the game against the Rangers), Webb is down to a 2.7 BB’s/9 with a 69% first-pitch strike rate while also sporting 9.3 K’s/9 and 3.55 xERA. Webb (just 23-yrs-old) missed 80 games in the middle of 2019 due to a PED suspension, but it doesn't seem to have hurt his development much, as skillswise, he's making a mostly seamless transition from Triple-A to the majors. He's another young arm who should benefit from the shortened season, since the Giants won't need to worry about an innings limit coming off of a 2019 season where he threw 103 IP in the majors and minors combined. There's some nice profits in his arm and we’re all over it this afternoon. We’re pretty sure the Giants can’t wait to get to the park today.

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