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Posted at 1:00 PM EST

COLORADO -1½ +165 over San Diego

9:40 PM EST. The “Coors Field angle” is something we have shied away from this year because of the shortened season and different dynamics but from time to time we have found a spot worth playing. This one is worth diving into after the Padres are at the front of baseball headlines today after they went a little nuts at the trade deadline. 

The centerpiece of 2020’s biggest splash of the trade deadline, as of the morning of August 31, is a 30-year-old utility/catcher with 336 career plate appearances. Weird year. The Padres smell their first playoff berth in 14 years (their playoff odds are over 95 percent), but it’s clear the front office is looking beyond simple entrance to the playoffs.  Padres since yesterday afternoon:

Acquired: Austin Nola, Trevor Rosenthal, Mitch Moreland, Jason Castro, Austin Adams, Dan Altavilla

Traded away: Taylor Trammell, Ty France, Luis Torrens, Andres Muñoz, Edward Olivares, Jeisson Rosario, Hudson Potts, Gerardo Reyes and one player to be named later. 

You’ve heard about Slam Diego, but it’s astonishing how many of their bats are currently firing, especially on the dirt. They have established stars, with third baseman Manny Machada, an MVP candidate, as is shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. in building on his impressive rookie campaign. There’s the breakout: NL Rookie of the Year candidate Jake Cronenworth’s explosive offense, which has earned him the second base gig after offseason acquisition Jurickson Profar struggled spectacularly. Most surprisingly, right fielder Wil Myers and first baseman Eric Hosmer are resurgent. 

The Padres have the league’s premier defensive catcher in Austin Hedges, a true wizard behind the plate whose struggles with the bat are nevertheless so profound the team added two separate backstops. We wonder how Hedges feels about that, not to mention the other players who AB’s will be cut down due to the several additions. We get adding arms in the pen (every player likes to see that except those in the pen) but we have to question if the Padres GM went a bit overboard. Regardless, San Diego is absolutely, 100% the flavour of the day and we suspect the media’s influence regarding how strong they just got will heavily influence the market over the next several days. 

Garrett Richards (RHP - SD) now makes his eighth start of the year after recovering from Tommy John surgery (July 2018) that extended into 2019, thus giving him fewer innings pitched in the past four seasons than most starters tally in one. Proven ability to miss bats and keep the ball on the ground keeps his ceiling high but we’re not seeing any of that this year and it’s getting progressively worse. Richards has struck out 25 batters in 31 innings with a pedestrian 10% swing and miss rate. He’s walked 14 batters, which adds another layer of risk on top of his poor durability. His 40%/25%/35% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates are bordering on extremely shaky too. His WHIP of 1.53 (1.67 over his last five starts) tells us he’s not even close to returning to form. Don't view him as anything more than a dart throw right now. 

Meanwhile, German Márquez (RHP - COL) is in the midst of a big rebound season over his first 42 innings. His skills have good upward potential given his excellent command sub-indicators (14.7% swing and miss rate, 69% first-pitch strike rate). Marquez is avoiding the blowups that plagued him in 2019 by reducing his average exit velocity by 2.5 mph and nearly cutting his barrel rate in half (4.4% barrel%). His 4.50 ERA is a result of an unlucky 69% strand rate but one has to understand that strand rates at Coors are always lower. Marquez has outstanding numbers across the board when you consider where he pitches half of his games. It’s not easy to bet against the Friars these days but their stock is through the roof today and as a result, we get the Rocks at a beautiful price with the superior pitcher and Marquez knows how to pitch at this venue.

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