Pinnacle +142 BET365 +140 SportsInteraction +140 5DIMES +140 CoolBet +140

Posted at 12:40 PM EST.

Pittsburgh +142 over ST. LOUIS (Game 1)

3:15 PM EST. This is Game 1 of a (seven-innings) double-header. For the Pirates, Chad Kuhl (RHP- PIT) will make his fourth start of the year. Dude has 19 K’s in 19 frames with seven walks issued. He also has a respectable 4.21 xERA with the support of his sub-indicators. That would include a 12% swing and miss rate, a 1.00 WHIP and a very decent Ball % and first-pitch strike rate. Kuhl has been around since 2016 and has started 64 games over his career with mixed results. Still, he has recorded a 22% swing and miss rate with his slider over the years but the frequency at which he deployed the pitch bounced around a lot. He’s using it more this year so we’ll see how things unfold but this wager is not about getting behind Kuhl. We know Kuhl at least has a chance to succeed and that makes him and the Pirates playable against the Cardinals overpriced starter. 

Kwang Hyun Kim (LHP - STL was named the surprise closer for the Cardinals back on July 26th, just before the season began. That didn’t last long because he couldn’t close out games. This 31-year-old career starter from Korea is 6'2" and weighs 185 pounds. Kim started 276 games in his 12-year Korean career but one must use caution about using foreign stats. There are several starters in the Korean League that got torched in the majors. That’s why they go play in Korea in the first place. 

Kim has walked three batters and struck out four in 11 innings this year. His 7.6% swing and miss rate is weak. His 29% line-drive rate is also weak. His 52% first-pitch strike rate completes the trifecta of weak skills. Finally, we’ll turn to Kim’s 1.69 ERA to highlight why he’s overvalued. Dude has a 5.44 xERA and it may also surprise you to learn that the Pirates rank 9th in OPS against lefties. This below average, career long Korean starter cannot be priced like he’s Zac Gallen. Big overlay here. 

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