Pinnacle -1½ _123 BET365 -1½ +100 SportsInteraction -1½ +105 5DIMES -1½ +115 888Sport -1½ +110

Posted at 7:45 PM EST

Kia Tigers -1½ +123 over Samsung Lions

5:30 AM EST. Kia is out to a 1-2 start after the opening series of the year but they lost to one of the league’s best teams, the Kiwoon Heroes. The Heroes had by far the league’s most potent offense last year (5.42 runs per game) and ranked first or second in all three slash stats. The Tigers will now take a step down in class to face the winless Lions (0-3) and with every loss, that first win becomes even more elusive. 

Going for the Lions will be their fourth man in the rotation, Chae-heung Choi. It is Choi’s third season at this level after posting some rather weak numbers in his first two years. Choi posted a 1.53 WHIP last year with a 4.81/5.15 ERA/xERA split. He was better in his first year but that’s not unique. Often, pitchers are much worse in the second go-around because batters get familiar. Being the fourth man in a weak rotation is not a ringing endorsement. Choi is your typical average or below average Korean starting pitcher that relies more on his defense than anything else. He does not strike out many and that’s really the big difference between MLB pitchers and Korean pitchers, talent aside. 

Enter Drew Gagnon, a dude that can throw 92 to 94 MPH, which is important to note because we have learned that the players at this level have difficulty catching up to that type of velo. It’s why foreign players or MLB castoffs thrive here on the mound. If one can throw strikes at 92 to 95 MPH, success is inevitable. 30-year-old Drew Gagnon makes his KBO debut here. After being drafted by the Brewers back in 2011, and having stalled out at Triple-A for the past six seasons, the Mets gave up on the 6'4", 215-pound right-hander. 

Looking at his overall minor-league and major-league numbers doesn't inspire much confidence, but then you realize he was pitching in Las Vegas and then his surface numbers resemble a moral victory of sorts. He was trying to keep the ball down at that hitter's paradise, and his 9.2 K’s/9 and 2.9 BB’s/9 gives us more confidence that he knows what he's doing. Gagnon throws a 93-94 mph fastball, along with a change-up, slider and a curve. None of the pitches are plus, but he is aggressive with his fastball and his change-up is his best secondary pitch. Don’t even be concerned with his MLB numbers because they mean nothing. This league is entertaining and there is talent but there is also a massive drop off in hitting talent and Drew Gagnon has the velocity and stuff to thrive. It also helps immensely that this opponent has never seen him before. 

Please note that we’re suggesting that betting this league into BET365’s 40 cent lines is an uphill battle that is playing right into the house edge. There are other books with 20 cent lines that you should be utilizing instead. Overcoming a 40 cent line is going to be difficult over the long haul. 

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