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Posted at 12:45 PM EST.

Miami +187 over ARIZONA

6:40 PM EST. With 12 games to go, the D-Backs are not mathematically eliminated but in reality, they are finished and they know it. They not only have to make up 5½, games but they have to leapfrog over four other teams so it is virtually impossible for them to make it to the postseason. Arizona has dropped seven of its last eight to fall out of contention and now, after 150 games, we cannot imagine for a second that they’re going to get their swagger back. The D-Backs are out of it, they know it and now motivation is a huge concern. The Fish have been out of it since April 10th so this is nothing new for them. In its present state of mind combined with the situation, the Diamondbacks are grossly overpriced here. This is a team ripe to get beat as a 2-1 favorite. 

Pablo Lopez (RHP - MIA) has posted three shaky outing in four games since returning from the injured list. He’s compiled sizable home/road splits this season (3.22 ERA at home, 7.71 ERA on the road) but somewhere in between all that is the real Pablo Popez. Generally Lopez’s skills have been better than his results. His xERA is a half-run better and his actual ERA. He’s only pitched 96 innings this year but he has a strong groundball lean and good control too. Last year, Lopez made a rapid ascension from Double-A to the majors, where he held his own until an August shoulder strain ended his season. His minor league track record says his groundball lean and 1.5 career BB’s/9 set a firm foundation. This is not a bad spot to speculate in. 

Robbie Ray (LHP - ARI) receives only his second home start in his last six appearances as he takes on a Marlins’ team that he was shaky against on July 28. Robbie Ray is suffering from a blister issue, and there’s no guarantee we won’t see any problems occur with that again. We’ve seen this nagging issue linger for months and what it does is alter the grip of the pitcher that’s suffering. Ray has been having nightmare innings because of it and until we see a change, we’re thrilled to be getting this price against both he and the Diamondbacks. 

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