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Posted at 12:00 PM EST 

7:05 PM EST. We have to question the motivation of the Rangers here, as a series in Baltimore this late in the season isn’t likely going to inspire them but there is something that could inspire them. Every player in every sport checks out the betting line and it’s insulting to be an underdog to one of the worst teams in history. Being disrespected like that is very inspiring but that’s not what this is about. This is about value and we get the better team and the far better starter and bullpen at a small price and we’re on it.

Kolby Allard (LHP - TEX) has made five starts for the Rangers since coming to them from the Atlanta system in a deadline deal. His skills have been strong, with a 3.63 xERA and 9 K’s/9 but his results have lagged behind with a 4.33 ERA. The Orioles have been average at home, with a .755 OPS ranking 8th in the AL, but they have been below average against LHP, with a .738 OPS that ranks 11th.

John Means (LHP - BAL) is the perfect example of skills catching up to results. He was lucky in the first half, with a 2.50 ERA but his 4.82 xERA screamed regression. That regression hit full speed in July and August, with ERAs of 5.24 and 5.13. Means has been at his best at home, where he has a 2.88 ERA, however, just like his overall ERA, that home ERA is in line to blow up too. A high strand rate and low hit and hr/f rates have transformed Means from the borderline starter that his xERA and his skills history suggests he is into a near-ace at home but don't believe it. At 6-3, 230 pounds, the 26-year-old Means looks the part of a power pitcher, but doesn't have the stuff nor the strikeouts to match it. The Rangers are at their best against southpaws.

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