Pinnacle +142 BET365 +140 SportsInteraction +140  5DIMES +140 888Sport +132

Posted at 11:10 AM EST 

8:15 PM EST. Brad Keller (RHP - KC) has a 2.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over nine games started in the second half. He’s compiled an improved 7.9 K’s/9 over four starts this month with a 10% swing and miss rate. The Athletics offense does a great gob of making contact, so expectations should be tempered in that particular category but Keller’s outlook is slightly more optimistic at home (3.60 ERA, 54% grounders, .207 oBA). Brad Keller has made significant gains with his control in the second half, he has an elite groundball rate and he has given the Royals a chance to win far more often than not. That said, this wager is all about value and selling high on a starting pitcher, who happens to be ex K.C. starter, Homer Bailey (RHP - OAK). 

Value my friends, we keep stressing it and it applies in spades here. Homer Bailey has made 25 starts this year. He’s been favored on the road once, when he was spotting -112 to the Giants 14 days ago. The other times he started on the road this year, Bailey has taking back the following prices: +185 at NYY, +168 at TB, +103 at Detroit, +178 at St. Louis, +108 at Chicago White Sox, +158 at Texas, +130 at Seattle, +163 at Toronto, +225 at Houston and finally +129 at the Cubbies. Last year, Homer Bailey made 12 road starts and was a dog in all 12 and mostly a significant dog. In 2017, he made nine road starts and was an underdog in all nine. We could go deeper into the archives but the point is that Homer Bailey is small road chalk once every leap year and today he’s priced in the -155 range on the road for perhaps the first time in his career. Bailey has a 5.06 ERA this year after making 67% of his starts in pitcher’s parks. Previously, he was on the Reds and they paid him the past four seasons for 429 days on the DL and 231 total innings. Many of those innings were unwatchable, and it’s nearly impossible to know what he is now other than extremely hittable. Of course Oakland can win here, It’s Oakland v Kansas City for f**ks sake but we’re not in the prediction business. We’re in the value business and in that regard, there is tons of it on the Royals here.

-------------------------------------------------------

A cheaper and better alternative to CABLE

TV Programming

A GREAT OFFER FOR SPORTSWAGERS READERS:

We’re offering a better and cheaper alternative to cable TV. You will literally save thousands of dollars. If you’re sick of paying a fortune for programming that you don’t even want or need, this is for you. All pro sports -- EVERY GAME, tons of college football and basketball games and tons of regular programming (non-sports). Over 2500 channels all in HD for a mere $20 per month. You have to be nuts not to get it.

Get all the details here