Texas @ CHICAGO
Texas +118 over CHICAGO

Pinnacle +118 BET365 +115 SportsInteraction +110  5DIMES +116 888Sport +111

Posted at 11:10 AM EST 

2:10 PM EST. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP - CHW) has thrown harder in the second half with 96.6 mph velocity, and his 12% swing and miss rate can provide strikeouts. Finding the zone early with a 64% first pitch strike rate has helped his walk rate too (2.6 BB’s/9 in his last nine starts) but his 6.03 xERA over that span reminds us that he’s a much better play when taking back a price as opposed to spotting one. That applies to the South Side too. Lopez has thrown two disasters in his last five games, he had a 6.12 ERA heading into July and it’s still shaky at 5.25 and he was also whacked in Texas back in June. 

Brock Burke (LHP - TEX) is a pitcher that the South Side have never seen before and right off the bat, one can give an edge to the Rangers because of it. Keep your eye on Burke for the future but today he’s a solid under the radar play. Burke struck out four batters in six scoreless innings vs. LAA on Aug. 20 in his MLB debut. He posted a 65% groundball rate that day and it’s also worth noting that the Halos have struck out the fewest times in MLB. In 450 innings in the minor leagues, Burke posted a 3.48 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with 438 strikeouts. We had our eye on Burke in spring training and made this note:

“Brock Burke is an emerging lefty who could crack the Texas rotation after some more seasoning in the high minors. He featured an elite 71/14 K/BB in 55 innings at Double-A in 2018 and looked dominant in a tiny sample this spring (12 IP - 8H - 3ER - 14K - 2 BB)”. 

Burke has pitched across four levels in 2019, but only logging 62.1 innings before this promotion. He has a solid 64/18 K/BB ratio in those 62 frames and has allowed just three jacks. His overall 3.95 ERA is misleading, as Burke's strand rate is under 65% on the season. Burke’s arsenal has evolved some since he came to Texas (he was dealt to the Rangers as a part of a three-team deal centered around infielder Jurickson Profar). His fastball has been consistent, 91-94 while touching 95 with run. The changeup, his best pitch, is a firm one around 83-85 that generates a ton of ground balls. Burke is unafraid to use either at any time, and when both are working, Burke’s outing tend to be positive. When Burke is cooking, he tends to work fast which throws off hitters while keeping the defense engaged. A lefty starter who’s deceptive and throws strikes has a bright future. Taking back a price, we’ll gladly get behind him and the Rangers here.

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Our Pick

Texas +118 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.36)

Boston +121 over Cleveland
Chicago +113 over Houston
Seattle -1½ +137 over Texas