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Posted at 12:00 PM EST 

10:10 PM EST. Hyun-Jin Ryu (LHP - LA) allowed four earned runs in his last start, which is the second most he has allowed all season. However, the opposing Yankees are averaging 6.5 runs per game this month where they have a .926 OPS. Furthermore, Ryu is not as good as his numbers suggest. He has an unsustainable 87.2% strand rate this year to go along with an equally unsustainable .261 BAPIP. Over his last seven starts, Ryu is 3-1 with a 1.19 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, although that also comes with a 4.01 xERA. He has been untouchable at home this season where in 11 starts he is 9-0 with a 0.81 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. However, like his overall xERA, Ryu’s xERA at home is more than three runs higher than his actual ERA. Ryu is a Dodger and the Dodgers are the best team in baseball so, yeah, of course the Dodgers can win this one but the Yanks are such a live pooch here because Ryu is not an elite pitcher like his surface stats suggest.

James Paxton (LHP - NYY) owns some of the widest home/road stat splits in the game. He has looked like a legit ace when pitching at home but his stats have imploded on the road (5.21 ERA, 1.57 WHIP in 48 IP), but that has been due to a 41% hit rate more than anything else. It is a proven fact that hit rates and strand rates are nothing but luck-fueled statistics. Of course, some pitchers are more hittable than others and will allow more hits but if pitcher A has a 26% hard-hit ball with a 40% hit rate and pitcher B has the same 26% hard-hit ball rate but a 20% hit rate, isn’t pitcher B much luckier? Of course he is and that’s the story here with Ryu and Paxton. Paxton’s road skills have been tremendous with 11.7 K’s/9, just 2.5 walks per nine and a 3.36 xERA. 

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