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Posted at 10:45 AM EST.

1:10 PM EST. Anibal Sanchez (RHP - WAS) was one of the bigger surprises of 2018, as he delivered a 2.83 ERA, following two seasons in which he recorded a combined 6.09 mark. He got off to a pretty rough start in 2019, posting a 5.10 ERA over his first nine starts, but since coming back from a hamstring strain, he's put up a 2.18 ERA across seven starts. What’s real and what’s not is the question.

Sanchez's velocity continues to slowly decline, and the swing & miss rate on his four-seamer is down to six percent, while batters have hit .322 against the pitch. At least he's only throwing the pitch 26% of the time now, the lowest of his career. An increased reliance on his cutter was key to his success in 2018, and the pitch continues to hold batter’s in check, as they are batting just .174 against the pitch on the year. His K% has fallen four percentage points this year to 20%, which is exactly where it has settled even during the aforementioned hot streak. Sanchez has done a much better job of limiting the walks lately, with 1.7 BB’s/9 since returning from the injured list. He probably won't maintain that level, but his first-pitch strike rate suggests his control should continue to improve from his current mark, which is still inflated from his early season wildness. Though the line drive rate is up, Sanchez continues to do a nice job of limiting hard contact, as he currently ranks in the top five percent of the league in both exit velocity against and Hard Hit % (per Baseball Savant).

Sanchez hasn't been able to duplicate the success of his surprising 2018 campaign, but has been much more effective since late May than he was early in the season. He has gotten the walks under control, and is once again doing an excellent job of minimizing hard contact against him. He’s a somewhat reliable starter and absolutely the superior starter in this matchup.

What a great bet the Nationals are here. After taking the first two games of this series, Washington has momentum, they’re the better team, and they have the superior pitching right across the board. Jake Arrieta (RHP - PHI) is one of the best fades there is when he’s favored because he’s pure garbage. Arrieta will make this scheduled start despite having a bone spur in his pitching elbow. Unsavory trends in his xERA, strikeouts, command and swing & miss rate are difficult to ignore and his ERA of 4.67 has finally regressed to his skill level. That regression may not be done yet. Arrieta has a BB/K split of 40/85 in 108 frames. He also has an alarming 1.46 WHIP (1.52 WHIP over his last five starts) so all those innings have been loaded with traffic. He’ll now face the hottest team in MLB that has the best record in MLB since June 1.

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