Detroit @ CHICAGO
Detroit -101 over CHICAGO

Pinnacle -101 BET365 -110 SportsInteraction -110 5DIMES -103 888Sport -109

Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

2:10 PM EST. In the spirit of “sticking with it”, we’ll come right back on the Tigers here because the value on them is tremendous. Maybe even the best value on today’s board. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP - CHW) does not have a lot going for him, He shows some positive signs from time to time and his pedigree offers hope that he can put it all together, but a high fly-ball%, spotty control, and substandard command vL say there will be more bumps in the road. At the end of the day, dude cannot be favored or evenly priced against Detroit’s ace. 

By now, Tigers left-hander Matthew Boyd’s breakout is no secret, and some of its primary drivers are well understood. It started with the catastrophic outing that paved Boyd’s path out of Toronto four years ago, and continues on with a new-found slider that Boyd has used to come so far since that day. Jared Wyllys of The Sporting News filled in some of the details of the journey, especially about the way Boyd worked (both at Driveline Baseball and in side sessions with Tigers coaches) to hone and refine his release point. David Laurila wrote at FanGraphs about Boyd’s work at Driveline in even more granular detail, including documenting the way Boyd changed the set of his wrist when throwing the slider, on the advice of James Paxton.

Each of those are important parts of the story of Boyd’s ascendant season, which has him at the top of every contender’s trade deadline wish list. He’s certainly a late bloomer, but with a 3.72 ERA and 129/20 K/BB ratio in 102 innings — a sick 31% strikeout rate — his stats put him alongside the game’s best starters, and his slider is a devastating weapon. The combination of Boyd’s size, his delivery, and the repertoire now available to him at all times makes Boyd eerily similar to Chris Sale, and almost as tough to hit. Sale has better pedigree and more overpowering sheer stuff, but Boyd is blossoming into that kind of overall pitcher, with four years of team control left and a pretty strong health record. When the Tigers ask for, say, Gleyber Torres or Kyle Tucker in exchange for Boyd, they’re not overreaching. His story isn’t finished yet, and it’s getting better by the page. If we lose here so be it but damn, this is a strong wager. 

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Our Pick

Detroit -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)

Chicago -103 over Boston