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Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

4:05 PM EST. The Cubbies are favored here because why? They’re favored because they’re the Cubs and they have a ton more market presence and credibility than the Pirates. Frankly, we wouldn’t want it any other way. Furthermore, many of the betting public will get behind the Cubs here, thinking that Chicago will not get swept in a four-game set. That thinking is lunacy and if Chicago does win, it won’t be because they lost the first three games of this series. In actuality, it is the Pirates that carry momentum, confidence, form and a psychological edge coming into this one. Although Pittsburgh scored two in the ninth to win 6-5 last night, the final score was flattering to the Cubs after Chicago made several incredible defensive plays, not to mention three unearned runs of their own. That the Cubs are favored here with Jose Quintana (LHP - CHC) starting is absurd.  

Jose Quintana got outstanding results in his most recent outing against the Reds, as he allowed no earned runs in six innings but that performance only lowered his ERA for the month of June to 5.17, a mark that is actually better than his 5.36 xERA for the month. Quintana has 78 lousy K’s in 94 innings with a 1.37 WHIP while the Pirates OPS since June 1 ranks second in the NL. Yeah, Quintana throws one good game a month, which came last time out but his downside is clear from the three disaster performances that preceded it. 

The Cubs have been below average on the road with an OPS that ranks 9th in the NL. Where oh where oh where do the Cubbies have an edge here. Offense? No. Pitching? No. Bullpen? No. Current form? No. Home field advantage? No.

Jordan Lyles (RHP - PIT) has a BB/K split of 71/26 in 70 frames. Lyles started the season with a sub-2.00 ERA in his first eight starts. Since then, he's allowed 19 earned runs in 24.2 innings with a BB/K split of 10/24. However, something was not right physically and as a result, he spent nearly three weeks on the DL. He returned last week and threw a nice game in Milwaukee (6 IP - 5H - 3ER - 5 K’s) and looked much better in the process. That first game back off the DL is an important one for any starter and Lyles passed with flying colors at a tough venue. We’ll say it again, the Cubs favored here is incorrect.  

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