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Posted at 3:00 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. We’re not even going to discuss Jordan Zimmermann (RHP – DET) because this has nothing to do with betting him. Zimmermann has only made seven starts this year and he’s 0-4 with a 6.03 ERA. His xERA is right around five but he’s had one start (a tightener) since coming off the DL and thus, this will be his second start. If Zimmermann gets blasted so be it because this is a straight fade against Texas and its band of pitchers.

The Rangers continue to defy logic and it’s only a matter of time before the clock strikes midnight on this overachieving group. While one cannot measure heart with stats, we can measure luck or lack thereof and we’re here to tell you that the Rangers have been lucky, extremely lucky.

Even with Rougned Odor turning into a limp pumpkin, Joey Gallo on the IL, and offensive black holes at catcher and in center field, the Rangers are a top-five squad in baseball in runs, doubles, stolen bases, and extra-base hits. Veterans like Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Elvis Andrus are enjoying strong years. When on the field, Gallo has emerged as one of the game’s preeminent sluggers. Danny Santana and Logan Forsythe are somehow useful, and Willie Calhoun has hit the snot out of the ball in a limited sample. It’s a deep offensive squad, and that’s before we get to Hunter Pence. The groin injury that Pence suffered recently seems unlikely to sideline him for more than a few weeks, assuming they don’t discover his thorax, prompting further investigation.

Then there’s the pitching, specifically Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. They’re 18th and 24th in xERA, respectively, among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched. However, there is not a whole lot of pitching talent behind them in the rotation, the bullpen, or in the high minors. Yet the Rangers need only look to the Twins and Brewers to see how effective the whole buying-in-bulk strategy can be on the mound when complemented by a kick-ass offense. It’s not a foolproof strategy, but it’s one that is working (for now). Once you get past the solid record and look at the foundation of this team, well, it becomes clear that this is likely going to be a great team to fade in the second half the rest of the way when they’re favored.

It’s true that they feature a deep squad but there are underlying stats that lend cause for concern. Despite their impressive runs total scored, the Rangers as a team have just a 100 DRC+, which, analytically speaking, makes them exactly average. They’re a middle-of-the-road club when it comes to power output, and they strike out a ton. Maybe Gallo will come back healthy, Odor will get better, and Calhoun will continue his break out. Or maybe the clock will strike midnight on Pence’s comeback, Choo will go down with an injury, and Ronald Guzman will continue to stink. There’s as much downside here as upside and maybe more downside.

On the mound, well, we probably don’t need to get too deep into analysis to relay why there are concerns about Minor and Lynn keeping this up. To be fair, both pitchers clearly have talent, and with Minor in particular injuries have often hindered him more than lack of ability. But also to be fair, it’s *literally* Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. And again, that’s the good part of this rotation. After those two, we’re at … Adrian Sampson and Ariel Jurado. Drew Smyly isn’t gonna turn it around any day now and neither is Joe Palumbo, but it’s more realistic to consider this rotation too thin to truly compete.

-No reliever who’s thrown more than 25 innings has an ERA under 3.00

-Only two relievers — Chris Martin and Jose Leclerc — have a xERA under 4.0

-Their “best closer,” Shawn Kelley, is 8-for-13 in save chances

- Jeff Mathis has generated more WARP (0.00) than Jeffrey Springs, who’s been the fifth-most used member of their bullpen.

Seriously, this bullpen is such a mess it’s a miracle Dave Dombrowski isn’t trading away prospects trying to fix it. Basically, the Rangers are too fundamentally broken to keep inning, yet they’re priced on the road like it’s all legit when it’s not. Today, they’ll be turning to Jesse Chavez (RHP) because they’re desperate for pitching.

Chavez is a reliever with 34 appearances among four starts this year. He has a BB/K split of 15/41 through 45 frames but his weak 7% swing and miss rate does not support his K-rate. As a reliever, he’s being asked to face anywhere between two and six batters so naturally, relievers strike out more than starters. With a 7% swing & miss rate, a weak 41% groundball rate and a weak pen behind him, Jesse Chavez and the baseball Rags are 100% overpriced here. At 34 years of age, Chavez has struggled his entire career and it's more like, "Congrats on your continued employment" and not being -150 road chalk. That misleading 3.18 ERA (4.29 xERA) means nothing because he’s VERY unlikely to go past three innings.

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