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Posted at 11:20 PM EST. 

4:10 PM EST. Merrill Kelly (RHP - ARI) has been a difference-maker during his home starts (3.05 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in 44 IP). Those marks have been backed by an elite level of command: 8.1 K’s/9, 0.3 BB’s/9. Kelly also has a decent 3.65 xERA over his last five starts after striking out 28 batters and walking just three over 35 innings during that span. That’s averaging seven innings per start, which used to be the norm in this league and now it’s as rare as a 21-year-old holding the door open for you. Kelly has a good chance to go deep into this one too and to be effective versus the Giants bottom five offense v righties. We cannot say the same about the Giants starter.

After seven starts, Shaun Anderson has a 2-2 record with a 4.08 ERA. Four of his seven starts have come at his home-friendly pitchers park but he won’t have that luxury here. Chase Field is murderous against pitchers that constantly put the ball in play and Anderson fits the bill in spades. Add in some poor control and we’re not sure how Anderson is going to pull off another Houdini act here. Over his last three starts covering 17.2 frames, Anderson has walked nine and struck out 11. He has a mere 24 K’s in 40 innings overall and has 16 K’s over his last 30 frames. 8% of his strikeouts this year have come against the opposition’s pitcher. Anderson's swing & miss rate is 6% and his line-drive rate last game was 39%. He has been the beneficiary of a lucky BABIP and a lucky strand rate, especially recently but his 6.68 xERA tells us the true story that Shaun Anderson should still be in the minors and probably would be if the Giants had some healthy bodies. The fade is on.

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