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Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

3:40 PM EST. Robbie Ray (LHP - ARI) endured a tough 2018 campaign, as he missed nearly two months with an oblique strain, his control spiked, and his ERA went up more than a run from his big 2017 season. He did finish with a 2.20 ERA over six September starts, and now owns a 3.83 mark through 15 starts this year.  What sticks out however, is his 106 strikeouts in 83 frames. His ability to strikeout batters is a great asset to have but it also makes him overpriced. There are flaws in his profile too.

Robbie Ray’s batted ball profile of 35% grounders, 29% line-drives and 36% fly-balls makes him a risky proposition at all times. Remember, he only worked 123 frames last year and is already up to 82 this year which brings his durability into question. He has a shaky 4.81/4.66 ERA/xERA over his last five starts and it’s also worth noting that the Diamondbacks have lost four of his last six games with the two wins over that span occurring against Toronto and San Francisco. Ray can clearly be counted on for a healthy dose of strikeouts, but when he’s not striking them out, batters are squaring up on him, He also has an inconsistent first-pitch strike rate of 56%, so there are games when he can’t find the plate, as his 38 walks in 82 innings this year and 70 walks in 123 last year will attest to.

Another reason that the Snakes are grossly overpriced here is because Jeff Hoffman (RHP - COL) has zero to little market credibility. Hoffman comes with a 7.04 ERA after six starts but pay no attention to it because four of his starts came at Coors and one other was at Wrigley with the wind blowing out. In a game last week at Coors v San Diego, in that well-documented hit and run fest, Hoffman started on Saturday and held the Padres to one run on three hits through five strong innings. After he left, the Padres scored 15 runs so the final score was 16-12 for the Friars.

In six starts, Hoffman has not walked more than two batters in any of them. Through 31 innings, he has a nifty BB/K split of 7/31. Hoffman is just 26-years-old and actually used to be one of the better pitching prospects in the game before his command totally abandoned him. His command is back and after a strong spring that saw him post a BB/K split of 5/17 in 19 innings, Hoffman put up a BB/K split of 15/44 in 35 frames at Triple-A Albuquerque. However, he also put up a BB/K split of 3/23 over his last 17 innings after tweaking his approach before being called up. The former 9th overall pick of the 2014 draft, Hoffman is throwing strikes again and has perhaps the most misleading ERA in the league in a very small sample size. His xERA is almost three runs lower than his actual ERA, thus, there's some post-hype intrigue here that could pay dividends sooner rather than later. We had Hoffman on Saturday and the Rockies took an 11-5 lead into the ninth and lost. Big overlay here.

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