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Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

8:10 PM EAST. The Rockies let one slip away yesterday after they blew a 9-3 lead and an 11-5 lead, the latter going to the bottom of the ninth. The Coors Field angle is still a strong one because rarely are games decided by one run in this park and we’re going to gamble that the Rockies come back strong today after blowing one yesterday. The Padres could easily suffer a mental letdown too after such a remarkable comeback. The pitching matchup heavily favors the host too.

Eric Lauer (LHP - SD) has a 7% swing & miss rate and a 6% swing & miss rate over his last five starts. His 2.03 ERA over his last five starts is a complete mirage, as his xERA of 5.43 over that span will attest to. Lauer has been the beneficiary of an 82% strand rate over his last five starts and it’s about to blow up on him. A non-strikeout pitcher at this park is trouble waiting to happen.

German Marquez’ (RHP - COL) recent starts have been undone by low strand rates (58% since May 15). Skill indicators have remained strong and Marquez has logged a 5.31 ERA/3.55 xERA over his last six games started. Don't be frightened away by the right-hander's surface numbers at home — those figures (5.06 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) are ballooned by a 36% hit rate. His Saturday foe is a RHB-heavy San Diego squad which owns a whiff-heavy .656 OPS since May 27. The right lean is a boon for Marquez' strikeout potential (over 30% K-rate 2018-19), and the Padres haven't hit him well in the past (.698 OPS, one walk against 29 strikeouts). Marquez has been pitching with ace-level skills since July 2018: he's racking up whiffs and strikeouts, showing pinpoint control, and posting an elite skills/xERA combo. The skills spike coincides with a major bump in slider usage, a sharper (and more effective) curveball, and the ability to find a consistent release point throughout his repertoire. Pitching at home hasn't affected Marquez at all—his skills have actually improved at Coors Field since the breakout began. If Coors Field can be conquered, Marquez might actually be the man to do it. Rockies going away gets the call.

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