Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST.
7:20 PM EST. In Baltimore against some weak pitching, the Tigers scored 10 runs in three games. They’ll now face Mike Foltynewicz (RHP - ATL) who picked up his first win Friday, giving up an unearned run on five hits over six innings while striking out seven, as Atlanta downed the Cardinals 5-2. Foltynewicz comes in with a 5.67 ERA after six starts so we’re getting him at a bargain here. The 27-year-old Foltynewicz started to live up to his flame-throwing potential last season when his strikeout rate (K’s/9) hovered around the low-8’s for several seasons but jumped up to 9.9 K’s/9 last year. He threw fewer fastballs (61% to 56%) and his devastating slider (23% swing & miss) more.
Regression is still hanging over Spencer Turnbull's (RHP, DET) head, as his 2.97 ERA is partly due to an 81% strand rate; his xERA is 4.37, and he's had some walk issues on the road (4.1 BB’s/9 over five road games). The Braves have an 11% walk rate, .793 OPS, and 107 PX (weighted power index) at home this year, and they've got enough lefties in their lineup that they could take advantage of Turnbull's weakness vs. LHB (.807 OPS, .267 oppBA). In his last three starts, Turnbull has been tagged for 19 hits and 13 runs in 16 frames and he’s also been tagged for at least one jack in four straight games. His confidence is waning and he rarely goes more than five innings, which means the Tigers horrific bullpen will likely get in for half the game or more. It’s time to fade Turnbull’s pretty on paper 2.97 ERA.
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ATLANTA -1½ +126 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)