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San Francisco @ MIAMI
MIAMI +105 over San Francisco

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +105 BET 365 +100 SportsInteraction N/A 5DIMES  +100

Posted at 11:00 AM EST. 

1:10 PM EST. The Marlins opened as a small fav here by the market got a hold of the number the minute it came out to drive it the other way. Apparently the market doesn’t like San Fran to get swept or they like the Giants rookie starter or they don’t like Miami’s shaky starter. Whatever the case may be, the Giants are not worthy of being road chalk.

Tyler Beede (RHP - SF) Beede was the Giants' No. 12 prospect and in the past he has come at hitters with upwards of six different pitches. The best of these include a two-seam fastball, a cutter, a 12-to-6 curve and a decent changeup. While none are plus-plus offerings, the mix-and-match has served him well—when he's able to harness his control, that is. Over 499 career minor league innings he's compiled a 4.11 ERA to go along with the following metrics: 4 BB’s/9 (too high), 7.9 K’s/9, and a 4.42 xERA. Again, control has been an issue, and it will need to show improvement if he wants to reach his full potential. Beede's 2019 campaign got off to a good start in the PCL, which prompted his call-up back on May 5. He’s made one start and two relief appearances but the start was only a brief one (3 innings) so he’s pitched a total of just seven innings. In said seven frames, Beede has walked eight batters, struck out 10 while posting a 13.50/7.15 ERA/xERA split. Yeah, he figures to be better here but he’s too erratic to be road chalk and it’s not like he’s starting for a team that wins more often than it loses.

Sandy Alcantara (RHP - MIA) has made 10 starts and has a unappealing BB.K split of 26/38 over 56 innings with an ERA/xERA split of 4.50/4.62. Alcantara throws a two-seam and four-seam fastball that can both touch 100 mph with, in the words of one scout, "explosive, mostly late movement" that he struggles to control. You can see that in his skill history and his secondary pitches haven't developed enough to help him get strikeouts, though his 11% swing & miss rate suggests he can do better than his current 5.7 K’s/9. He's done a good job of generating ground-balls, mostly with his two-seamer, and that at least helps to offset some of the damage from his current high-walk, low-strikeout skill set. Alcantara's high prospect rating aptly reflects his current reality: he's a high-ceiling talent who is at risk for never reaching his full potential. He could eventually become a frontline starter... or he could wind up in the bullpen. So far in 2019, it’s been hard to get any value out of him, but with the Marlins having nothing to play for, there's reason to think they'll give him a lot of rope to see if he can work through some of these issues. We're waiting for his raw talent to turn into skill and we could not have handpicked a better team to see if he can come up with something good.

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Our Pick

MIAMI +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)

 

 

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