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Pittsburgh @ SAN DIEGO
Pittsburgh +101 over SAN DIEGO

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +101 BET 365 -110 SportsInteraction -110 5DIMES  -103

Posted at 10:15 AM EST. 

4:10 PM EST. Joe Musgrove (RHP - PIT) will look to follow up his five strikeouts and seven shutout innings performance at Arizona on May 14 with an outing at this favorable pitcher’s park. It's a good matchup, as the Padres' K% vs. RHP is the highest in the majors, and their offense is a below-average lineup vs. RHP. Musgrove is on pace to produce the breakout we've been waiting for from him. He has a 3.59 ERA and 1.11 WHIP after 48 innings. His strong across the board numbers are backed up with upper-tier command sub-indicators: 14.2% swing & miss rate, 64% first-pitch strikes and 31% ball%. Joe Musgrove is so good that even with one of the most unluckiest strand rates (56%) in the entire league, he’s still putting up very good numbers. When that strand rate normalizes, gems will follow. There remains a lot to like here.

On May 1, the Padres called up second-generation MLB player Cal Quantrill (RHP - SD) to make his MLB debut against Atlanta. Quantrill, the son of former MLB All-Star RP Paul Quantrill, was a first-round pick of the Padres in the 2016 draft out of Stanford. He has started throughout his professional career and has amassed 326 minor league innings, sporting a 5.33 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Quantrill’s numbers haven’t quite lived up to his promise, mostly due to inconsistent command of his fastball and an inadequate breaking pitch. The 24-year-old RHP sits in the low-to-mid 90s with his two-seam fastball. It has solid arm-side run and some sink but has a mind of its own. Quantrill has struggled throughout his career corralling the movement, resulting in high ball rates and high contact rates against the pitch. It also flattens out up in the zone. His best offering is his change. Sitting low 80s, Quantrill’s changeup mimics his fastball delivery, creates a terrific velocity drop from his fastball and has plus tumbling action. With a better fastball it can play up to a bat-misser against both LHH and RHH. Quantrill’s slider is below average and is extremely moody. Sometimes it’s effective to keep hitters off the straighter pitches. Quantrill has also been known to hang a few too. While the potential is there for Quantrill to be effective SP in the big leagues, the pitch profile and lack of fastball command hurt his immediate and future value. Like father, profile probably works best in relief. In his two starts, he has a 3.60/4.81 RERA/xERA split with a BB/K split of ⅜ in 10 innings. However, his 52% first-pitch strike rate is a warning sign and he’ll now face a Pirates’ squad that is among the best in the business in putting the ball in play. Pirates are a true bargain here.

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Our Pick

Pittsburgh +101 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.02)

 

 

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