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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. 

9:40 PM EST. The Pirates just went into St. Louis and took three of four from the team with the best home record at the time. Gregory Polanco returned in late April from the DL, Josh Bell is on fire and the Pirates, as a whole, own one of the best contact rates in MLB. Only four teams have struck out fewer times than the Pirates meaning they put the ball in play and that’s not a bad thing at this hitter-friendly venue.

Nick Kingham (RHP - PIT), in his first start of the season against Texas  yielded two earned runs (1 HR) on three hits with five K’s and three walks issued. He logged 78 pitches in that start, meaning he should see that grow against the Diamondbacks here. The Arizona offense has been a lackluster group at home, and sit league average against RHP. Chase Field has favorable park factors for pitchers (-6/-6% LHB/RHB HR) and Kingham himself owns a nice 9.7 K’s/9 and a 11% swing & miss rate. For Nick Kingham, it’s all about control because his stuff is good so if he can keep said control at bay, profitable results will follow.

Robbie Ray (LHP - ARI) has great stuff, there is no denying that, as his 55 K’s in 44 innings will attest to. However, his prior control woes have come back (6.3 BB’s/9) and they are no flukes. Check out his terrible 52% first-pitch strike rate and 42% ball%. He still misses bats at a nifty clip, so he carries upside worth speculating on when he’s a dog but if you want to reduce the risk from your bankroll, he’s not the guy to bet on when spotting prices like this. Ray’s combination of shaky control and hit and strand rates regression is a red flag. Oblique strain that cost him eight weeks last year was a crusher. He then finished Aug/Sept with 58 innings pitched while issuing 37 walks. Indeed his swing & miss rate/K-rate combo is a big enabler but too much must align right for him to be worthy of spotting prices like this and again, the Pirates put the ball in play so it’s not like Ray is facing a free-swinging bunch. The Pirates are hot and they’re live.  

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