Detroit @ MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA -1½ +124 over Detroit

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Posted at 10:15 AM EST. 

2:10 PM EST. Game 1 of the doubleheader.

Spencer Turnbull (RHP - DET) notched a beauty in his last start v KC and has now thrown four gems (on paper) in a row. Prior to six-hitting the Royals in seven frames, Turnbull three-hit the Phillies in six full, three-hit the Red Sox in five full and two hit the Pirates in six full. To recap, Turnbull has allowed just 14 hits over his last 24 innings and has posted a 2.31 overall ERA this year. However, Turnbull has benefited from some generous rates on the margins that includes a 81% strand rate and tiny 29% hit rate. The Twins’ lefty bats figure to get to him in a big way and while we absolutely like Turnbull, he’s about to hit a valley. Turnbull’s 3.96 xERA is respectable but it’s also 1½-runs higher than his surface ERA.

Michael Pineda (RHP - MIN) has gone through a rough stretch of opponents of late and has been battered by a 35% hit rate. Today, he’ll face a scuffling Detroit nine (high-strikeout .627 OPS last two weeks), that has struggled on the road and has also labored against right-handers. The Tigers are a team to avoid right now and we have two starters here in line for a correction. Pineda’s correction should be to the good while Turnbull’s correction is to the bad.

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Our Pick

MINNESOTA -1½ +124 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.48)

Boston +121 over Cleveland
Chicago +113 over Houston
Seattle -1½ +137 over Texas