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Posted at 10:00 PM EST. 

6:35 PM EST. For Mike Leake (RHP - SEA) it’s a different year, same old story. Inducing grounders and limiting walks have only taken him so far, as his swing and miss rate of 9%  caps his strikeout rate and probably his return on investment too. Without a bunch of Ks, this profile points to league-average ratios that are, admittedly, serviceable in certain spots, that being when he’s an underdog. All his underlying and surface stats say there's plenty more mediocrity to come but we’ll live with whatever Leake delivers today because this is too good a take-back against J.A. Happ (LHP - NYY) and the overpriced Yanks.

J.A. Happ has gotten off to a rough beginning, with a 4.92 ERA and a 4.81 xERA in his seven starts. He has struggled in Yankee Stadium, with three disasters in his four starts there while allowing 17 earned and 7 jacks in 20 IP there. Seattle is the AL's best road team with a .884 OPS, and they have the league's 4th-best OPS versus LHP. The price to get behind Happ here is inflated because it’s getting a boost from a strong win expectation as a result of facing Mike Leake, but given Happ's Yankee Stadium struggles, this start carries plenty of risk. It's not often that you see surging stats from a starter in his mid-30s, but that's what Happ did last year after he replaced sliders with sinkers that stymied batters. There are now signs that his secret sauce has been discovered by hitters and he’s back to being J.A. Happ once again, you know, the guy that has been on 11 teams since breaking in back in 2007.

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