BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +147 BET 365 -1½ +150 SportsInteraction -1½ +140 5DIMES  -1½ +148

Posted at 10:00 AM EST.  

12:35 PM EST. It is no doubt risky to be betting the home-town Pirates spotting 1½-runs in a pitcher’s park but with that risk comes reward in the form of the take-back we’re being offered. In that regard, the risk is worth it because Pittsburgh’s win expectation is high here. For one, the Rangers have just four road wins in 14 games and will send out perhaps the worst starting pitcher in the game.

Shelby Miller (RHP - TEX) has zero quality starts in six tries this year and had zero quality starts last year too. In fact, one has to go back to 2016 to find his last quality outing. That year, he had four quality starts in 20 games started. In 24 innings this year, Miller has walked 20 batters and struck out 13 for the worst strikeout to walk ratio in the majors. He also comes in with a WHIP of 2.03 so he is constantly pitching under duress. To make matters worse, Miller’s swing and miss rate is 5%, which is also among the worst in the game and that absolutely does not bode well here against a Pirates’ squad that doesn’t swing at garbage. In fact, Pittsburgh ranks 5th in MLB in fewest strikeouts. Miller comes in with a 7.99/7.79 ERA/xERA split and is at the heavy mercy of everything bad that can happen to a pitcher that can’t throw strikes, can’t strike out anyone and that continuously induces hard contact.

Nick Kingham (RHP - PIT) has made eight appearances out of the pen this year for the Buccos with no starts. Last year as a rookie, he made 15 starts and went 5-7 with a 5.21 ERA over  76 frames. An improved slider boosted Kingham’s 1st half skills, but then he lost his feel for the zone, while the HR bug contributed to an ugly 2nd half. He still has work to do vL while his below-average K-rate further reduces margin for error. Still, Kingham was very effective early in the season, albeit in a small sample size. He delivered an upper-tier 13% swing and miss rate and 67% first-pitch strike rate during that period too. We’re not sure what the Pirates plan is today regarding stretching Kingham out or using a start by committee but we don’t care. This is a straight fade against Shelby Miller and against a team that is just awful on the road.

Open an account today at and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.