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Posted at 10:00 AM EST.  

1:10 PM EST. Brandon Woodruff (RHP - MIL) is lined up for a home start against a struggling Nationals ball club which has batted all of .224 /.293/.367 (.660) since April 22. The hard-throwing right-hander has some signals trending the right way and is particularly tough on RHBs (65% of Nats plate appearances vs. RHP are by RHBs—league average is 55%). Woodruff is 26 years old and figuring things out at an impressive rate but his surface ERA of 4.71 means we get him at a true bargain here. That surface ERA is hiding a really strong foundation of skills: 10.9 K’s/9, 2.9 BB’s/9, 3.52 xERA. An inflated 39% hit rate is the primary reason for his bad surface stats but make no mistake that buy low targets don't get much better than Woodruff.

One has to question the Nationals state of mind here after losing again last night, their 7th loss in the past nine games and third loss in a row. Not only are the Nats losing but they’re not hitting and they’re losing frequently with some decent starters. Today, the Nats will not have the luxury of throwing out a decent starter, as Jeremy Hellickson (RHP - WAS) makes his sixth start of the year.

Last season, Hellickson posted a 3.45 ERA in 19 starts for the Nats but was extremely fortunate to do so and can't reasonably be expected to duplicate the feat in 2019. He's not going to strikeout many, as he punches out very few batters on a per inning basis, and doesn't work very deep into games, as he averaged under five innings per start in 2018 and lasted six innings just twice. In 27 frames this year, Helickson has a BB/K split of 10/22 but his swing and miss rate is just 7% and his velo is down to a fastball that averages 88 MPH. Throw in a 38%/43% ground-ball/fly-ball split and the projections look even worse. Hellickson has a 4.92 xERA through his first five starts and 2016 or last year for that matter is not coming back. Playing on a weak squad that is struggling to do anything right now, this is as good a fade as there is on the board today.  

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