L.A. Angels @ DETROIT
L.A. Angels - 1½ +120 over DETROIT

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Posted at 10:45 AM EST.  

7:10 PM EST. Daniel Norris (LHP - DET) is 1-0 after six appearances (three starts) covering 23 innings with a 3.47 ERA. Norris allowed just a single run over five innings but did not factor into the decision in Wednesday's 7-3 loss to the Phillies. He gave up five hits and a walk while striking out four. Groin surgery last May sapped a lot of Norris’ velocity, and he’s still trying to get it back. Last start, his heater averaged a lackluster 89.8 mph [per Brooks Baseball], and it topped out at 92.9. Norris used to sit 93-96, and not having that old oomph has wreaked havoc on his psyche. “When you have 95-96 in your back pocket, you’re like, ‘OK, I’m going to rear back and challenge this guy here,’” Norris explained. “When your velo is down, sometimes you inadvertently back off a little bit and throw something else. I’ve been working to get that groove back, to where I’m challenging people with my fastball. After surgery, I lost that ego a little bit. Throwing 90 instead of 95, there’s a little bit of ‘I don’t know’ in the back of your head.”

It’s hard to know if Norris’s fastball will return to what it once was. It’s likewise hard to know if he can be effective if it doesn’t. The lefty uses four pitches but it’s hard to excel at the highest level without a good heater. The 10 hits he allowed over five innings in his last start suggest as much. His 8% swing and miss rate says some disasters are forthcoming and that bodes well here for the Angels, as they have struck out the fewest times in MLB.

The Angels called up 22-year-old Griffin Canning (RHP - LAA) last week and put him into their starting rotation immediately. Canning lasted just 4.1 innings that day against Toronto while allowing four hits and three earned runs for an ERA of 6.23. The market will see that shaky surface ERA but we’re screaming at you to ignore it completely because it means jack. The kid was actually incredibly impressive in his debut and he figures to be more relaxed here.

Just two years since his UCLA days, the 6'3", 175-pound right-hander is a perfect example of what is meant by a #3 starter type of pitcher: he has no truly plus pitches, but he has five solid ones, and he can throw all five for strikes. If any of those pitches develops into a plus pitch, he could become an ace and that’s likely why he made the 2019 list of the best prospects in many publications. Canning started his pro career in 2018 and jumped from High-A to Double-A and then Triple-A. In three more games started this year in Salt Lake, he continued to show good dominance, better control than usual, and very solid skills. His fastball has deception in its mid-90s form, and his change-up is the best of his secondary offerings. His slider and curve are low-80s pitches and he repeats his delivery. He is also quite hard to hit, with a career .234 oppBA that got even lower this year. With 75 innings at Triple-A, and with five pitches ready to go, there's no reason to think he cannot stick with the Angels. He is clearly a part of their future. Incidentally, in that first start v the Blue Jays, Canning posted a 23% swing and miss rate. To all you fantasy players, grab him now. For all bettors, buy now.

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Our Pick

L.A. Angels - 1½ +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

Boston +121 over Cleveland
Chicago +113 over Houston
Seattle -1½ +137 over Texas