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Posted at 3:30 PM EST.  

7:07 PM EST. Marcus Stroman (RHP - TOR) boasts a 2.20 ERA (3.71 xERA) and 1.20 WHIP, over even games started thus far. His K-rate (8.2K’s/9) and swing and miss rate (11%) would both be career-highs if the season ended today, but his opponent makes the third-best contact against RHP (19.5% K). The Twins offense has also been markedly better on the road (6.1 RPG) than they have at home (4.5 RPG). Stroman is off to a good start but he’s also benefited from an 80% strand rate thus far. Stroman is certainly hittable and we’ll gladly trust Minnesota’s bats over Toronto’s. One can expect a serviceable outing from Stroman but certainly not a dominant one.

Martin Perez (LHP - MIN) catches the Jays at a good time, as they sit among the league’s worst in wOBA over the last week, in addition to being a bottom-tier team against LHP and at home for the season. Perez doesn’t rate favorably in any categories, but his 11% swing and miss rate and 7.9 K’s/9 are almost identical to Stroman’s stats. Perez’s increase in his swing and miss rate can be attributed to a cutter he added this season that he’s currently throwing 35% of the time (15% swing & miss), as well as increased velocity (94 mph fastball/sinker). Of course the Tw8ins can win here.

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