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Posted at 2:35 PM EST.  

7:40 PM EST. Zach Davies (RHP - MIL) is getting a ton of praise in the early season for his success on the mound, as the 26-year-old has posted an eye-opening 1.65 ERA to back up his 2-0 record. However, it's not all lollipops and unicorns for the surgically repaired Davies. Now, we hate to rain on a parade as much as the next guy, but Davies underlying numbers present us with a starting pitcher that is unlikely to sustain his current level of success. Firstly, Davies strikeout rate leaves much to be desired, as his 6.26 K/9 is the lowest number posted of all of today's starters. Furthering the appeal to sell on Davies is his inability to keep men off base. He sports a strand rate of 88.1%, which is likely going to bite him in the ass eventually, as the mean is in the low 70s. When you put guys on base and can't strike them out, it usually makes for a short night. Finally, Davies 1.65 ERA is mostly smoke and mirrors, as he xERA is a much less impressive 4.75. That inflated number is a much more accurate representation of just how non-elite Davies has been. Now he'll face a Rockies side that is hitting the cover off the ball after posting 33 runs in their last four games.

The Rockies 3-12 start to the season has just about been forgotten, as Colorado has ripped off wins in 10 of its last 13 games. Kyle Freeland (LHP - COL) missed his last turn in the rotation with a blister on his left middle finger, but that information is no secret and so we're not going to worry about it, as this is mostly a fade on Davies, but others in the market may use it as a reason to punt the lefty hurler, which is fine by us. Freeland commented on the situation, "In the two side sessions I’ve had, it feels good. I tested it, throwing my bullpen at normal rate and everything held up.” Freeland brings a 2-3 record and a 4.23 ERA to the table, but his xERA is 0.40 points lower and he's flaming batters at a solid 9.76 K/9 clip. Freeland also sports a nice strand rate of 67%, which is a full 20% lower than Davies. The bet here is that the Rocks clobber Davies. Freeland doesn't have to be stellar, but he is capable of a great night.

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