Texas @ OAKLAND
Texas +140 over OAKLAND

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +140 BET 365 +140 SportsInteraction +140 5DIMES +140

Posted at 11:00 AM EST.  

3:35 PM EST. We have no idea how Kyle Dowdy (RHP - TEX) will fair today and it wouldn’t surprise us one bit if he got knocked out before the third inning because that’s how much of a wild-card he is. However, what we do know is that Aaron Brooks (RHP - OAK) can’t be priced like he’s Vida Blue.

Kyle Dowdy was acquired by the Indians along with Leonys Martin at the trade deadline last season from Detroit. Dowdy was awful and left unprotected during the Rule 5 draft last off-season. The Mets claimed him. Despite a good start to spring, Dowdy struggled with fastball command and found himself as the last cut of camp. Placed on waivers again, the Rangers picked him up and put him in their Opening Day pen. Dowdy throws hard. His fastball has been clocked at 100 MPH before and he averages 96 MPH on the gun. His secondary stuff doesn’t hold a candle to his fastball but there is enough stuff to get by. In 10 innings this year, all in relief, Dowdy has walked six, struck out eight and has posted a 3.48/4.45 ERA/xERA split. However, it’s also worth noting that three of his four relief appearances came at home in a massive hitters park. When he relieved in L.A. against the Angels, he went two full innings and allowed just one hit and zero runs.

Signed as a 9th round pick in 2011, Aaron Brooks has 14 major-league starts (22 overall appearances) to his name because he’s mostly been in the minors for almost a decade. Brooks has started four games for the A’s this year and is always at the mercy of his defense (which is good) and BABIP because he strikes out so few batters. He has a 5.32/5.21 ERA/xERA split with a weak 7% swing and miss rate thrown in. Aaron Brooks was a -128 favorite last start at home v Toronto and he and the A’s lost 5-1. We understand the risk with Dowdy and have you aware of them too but again, this is baseball and a career minor-league that has five wins at this level in his lifetime cannot be priced like a first or second tier starter. If the A’s had healthy arms available (Marco Estrada, Sean Manaea), Brooks would still be in the minors.

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Our Pick

Texas +140 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)

Boston +121 over Cleveland
Chicago +113 over Houston
Seattle -1½ +137 over Texas