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Posted at 12:45 PM EST

For the first time in a while, the Fall Classic won’t be a referendum on how to build a baseball team. That’s partly because these two franchises are too rich to limit themselves to any one plan. They can follow every lead—casually forget about the Scott Kazmir contract, or the fact that Rusney Castillo has taken 1,148 plate appearances in Triple-A since his last appearance in the majors. They can make mind-boggling, bank-breaking transactions, fail, then turn into contenders on a dime. It’s also partly because baseball likes to claw back at our notions of good sense, throw it in our face that these two paths somehow led to the same place.

As the Red Sox zero in on their fourth World Series since 2000, there will be just one holdover starter from their last title-winning team on the field: Xander Bogaerts. The Dodgers were here last year, of course, and even boast more continuity from 2013. They’ve been diligently cracking October’s code this whole time, bit by bit, while the Red Sox were leaping to the summit, stumbling off a cliff, accidentally playing badly enough to score Andrew Benintendi, then soaring back to the top with instant superstar Mookie Betts and some marquee acquisitions.

Despite the laser-guided organization-building, Los Angeles had to thrash through a struggle of a season just to get another spin of the postseason wheel, looking for that first championship breakthrough under this all-systems-go ownership group, the first championship in 30 years.

Best laid plans, etc. First to four wins gets to feel like it was all worth it.

Lineups (AVG/OBP/SLG/TAv) TAv = True Average

Dodgers:

LF-L Joc Pederson (.248/.321/.522/.294)

3B-R Justin Turner (.312/.406/.518/.332)

DH-L Max Muncy (.263/.391/.582/.340)

SS-R Manny Machado (.297/.367/.538/.306)

1B-L Cody Bellinger (.260/.343/.470/.299)

RF-R Yasiel Puig (.267/.327/.494/.290)

CF-R Chris Taylor (.254/.331/.444/.282)

C-R Austin Barnes (.205/.329/.290/.238)

2B-R Enrique Hernandez (.256/.336/.470/.291)

The usual disclaimer: Trying to write out a representative Dodgers lineup is like trying to eat soup with a fork. American League rules are just another factor for Dave Roberts to manipulate. He has already said Matt Kemp will DH in Game 1 and David Freese will start somewhere. That doesn’t seem likely to be the case for the majority of the games in the series, unless it is.

Turner is a constant threat. Machado and Puig, with similar levels of hype-ness and different ways of channeling it, have been the Dodgers’ best postseason hitters. Taylor has also played himself into more opportunities, reaching base at a .467 clip.

It may feel as though Bellinger has had a redeeming October after last season’s record-setting whiff-fest, but his hits have been timely rather than numerous (he’s slashing .139/.244/.250), and a majority of these games will involve left-handed Red Sox starters.

What they do at catcher is … uncomfortable. Logic says Yasmani Grandal should get another chance, but it’s hard to push back on whatever Roberts decides, as he has eyes on the person behind the embattled player.

Red Sox:

RF-R Mookie Betts (.346/.438/.640/.359)

LF-L Andrew Benintendi (.290/.366/.465/.289)

DH-R J.D. Martinez (.333/.402/.629/.340)

SS-R Xander Bogaerts (.289/.360/.522/.305)

1B-R Steve Pearce (.279/.394/.507/.321)

3B-L Rafael Devers (.240/.298/.433/.252)

2B-L Brock Holt (.277/.362/.411/.273)

C-S Sandy Leon (.177/.232/.279/.182)

CF-L Jackie Bradley (.234/.314/.403/.254)

The Red Sox have plated 13 more runs than the Dodgers in two fewer games this postseason, against undeniably more talented pitching staffs. They have also struck out 50 fewer times. The prognosticators have already decided that’s one of the big advantages in this series because it is a true fact that the team that puts the ball in play more has a better chance of winning. Notably, the Red Sox have done this without typical levels of offensive production from Betts or Benintendi. It doesn’t need to be said, but let’s say it: If regular-season Mookie shows up to go with Martinez, this could be a quick and explosive coronation.

The bottom of the order is less firm. Devers seems to have wrestled the starting job away from Eduardo Nunez. Holt, meanwhile, is still working on convincing Alex Cora that he’s a better bat than Ian Kinsler, who unfortunately doesn’t even offer strikeout avoidance at this point.

Finally, the looming question of the National League rules lineup, Betts, and second base. In short: The Brewers rolled with Travis Shaw at second base for months, which should put to rest any question of whether Betts can handle it. Further, the potential benefits (filling an offensively weak position with Betts, not losing any Martinez at-bats) are hard to ignore. It almost has to be the move for Game 3 against a right-handed starter. It could be that a cooled-off Bradley takes a seat in Game 4 or 5 against lefty pitching, but even in those contests, the infield may come calling for the likely AL MVP at some point. We say likely because few are giving the NL a shot here (except us, of course).

Benches (AVG/OBP/SLG/TAv)

Dodgers:

INF-R David Freese (.296/.359/.471/.299)

OF-R Matt Kemp (.290/.338/.481/.291)

2B-R Brian Dozier (.215/.305/.391/.249)

C-S Yasmani Grandal (.241/.349/.466/.295)

Freese is low key one of the better additions any team made this year, as he has performed his assigned task (bludgeoning lefties) better than even the most optimistic forecasters could have expected. Dozier and Kemp have been shuffled to the periphery, but will have their chances in this series.

Red Sox:

C/1B/OF-S: Blake Swihart (.229/.285/.328/.217)

C-L: Christian Vazquez (.207/.257/.283/.197)

1B-L: Mitch Moreland (.245/.325/.433/.262)

2B-R: Ian Kinsler (.242/.294/.311/.208)

3B-R: Eduardo Nunez (.265/.289/.388/.236)

Cora has said Boston is likely sticking with 14 position players. That’s despite Swihart’s one postseason plate appearance and Nunez’s omnipresent health issues. The games in Los Angeles are likely to throw Cora’s assessments of these rather shaky options into sharp relief. Outside of Moreland, are the plate appearances worth, say, removing Sale or a suddenly dominant Eovaldi before their pitching would dictate it? Frankly, there are some cases where he could justifiably lean no.

However he deploys this group, it will pale in comparison to the Dodgers’ bench cavalcade.

Starting Pitchers (IP, ERA, xERA)

Dodgers:

LHP Clayton Kershaw (161, 2.73, 3.11)

LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (82, 1.97, 2.45)

RHP Walker Buehler (137, 2.62, 3.21)

LHP Rich Hill (133, 3.66, 3.92)

Two brilliant starts, one clunker and a strong—if unnecessary—relief appearance. 19 innings (the most of any pitcher so far this month), a 2.37 ERA, and a 0.79 WHIP. That’s Kershaw’s postseason. Take stock now to ground yourself for whatever comes next as he takes his breaking-ball-first show on the road to the home of Betts and Martinez.

The overall numbers would tell you lefties like Kershaw, Ryu, and Hill present a tougher matchup for the Red Sox, but those numbers also wouldn’t properly account for how much time Pearce and Moreland will get against southpaws (all and none, respectively), or how absurdly good Boston’s best hitters are against southpaws.

Ryu’s October has been sliding downhill since his stellar start against the Braves, while Hill’s solid ERA tells a different story than his terrifying WHIP. Buehler, the lone righty, stepped forward in NLCS Game 7 by pumping premium heat until someone made him stop. Against a team like Boston with strong approaches up and down the line, Buehler’s in-your-face power might be as good an option as there is.

Red Sox:

LHP Chris Sale (158, 2.11, 2.24)

LHP David Price (176, 3.58, 3.72)

RHP Nathan Eovaldi (111, 3.81, 3.23)

RHP Rick Porcello (191, 4.28, 4.02)

It’s safe to say Sale—he of whole belly button but uncertain shoulder—is loose enough ahead of his Game 1 start, and while we’re doing some armchair psychology, it would be reasonable to think some weight has been lifted off of Price but so what. Price is beatable, Porcello is beatable and Eovaldi, well, he’s a wildcard because he was so bad for so long and now he’s good? We’re going to find out.

After struggling with injury and illness, Sale will at least be working Game 1 on a ton of rest. Compromising conditions make the following numbers less telling than they otherwise would be, but Sale has a 1.67 ERA in 30 starts on six or more days rest. Price, meanwhile, didn’t just finally win a postseason start. He found a changeup-heavy mode of pitching that flummoxed the Astros. Who’s to say if that level of feel for the pitch will be there in autumnal Boston, but if nothing else it’s an extra element for the Dodgers to worry about. If Sale is shaky and that’s a possibility, then what?

Back to Eovaldi. His October line so far: 14.1innings, 1.88 ERA, 10 strikeouts, two walks, no homers, and several dollar signs. A revelation in relief, Porcello is still his usual self overall, though he seems to have evolved into a vocal, rah-rah leader and profanity-laced quote-giver. The task for this rotation is simple enough: Keep the bullpen standing.

Relief Pitchers (IP, ERA, xERA)

Dodgers:

RHP Kenley Jansen (72, 3.01, 2.56)

RHP Pedro Baez (56, 2.88, 3.35)

RHP Kenta Maeda (125, 3.81, 2.78)

RHP Ryan Madson (53, 5.47, 5.17)

LHP Caleb Ferguson (49, 3.49, 3.17)

LHP Alex Wood (152, 3.68, 3.41)

LHP Julio Urias (4, 0.00, 1.88)

RHP Dylan Floro (64, 2.25, 4.34)

If you can find a prop bet on the seemingly useful Ross Stripling making the roster, take it, because we have finally given up on the idea. Instead, August trade acquisition Madson has been the man to escape a jam, and Baez the main bridge to Jansen. As weird as that first part would have sounded a month ago, it has totally worked. Madson and Baez have combined for 13 innings, in which there has been one measly run, 16 strikeouts, and three walks.

For his part, Jansen has looked strong as an ox after a tumultuous regular season, even if the decision to use him before Kershaw in Game 7 was odd.

It’s not clear what the Dodgers are doing with Urias, who just threw on back-to-back days for the first time in his life—and gave up ringing contact that Taylor tracked down—but it seems he will be around for assignment against lefties like Benintendi.

Red Sox:

RHP Craig Kimbrel (62, 2.74, 2.58)

RHP Matt Barnes (62, 3.65, 2.21)

RHP Ryan Brasier (34, 1.60, 3.57)

RHP Joe Kelly (66, 4.39, 4.56)

RHP Heath Hembree (62, 4.20, 3.87)

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (130, 3.82, 3.77)

RHP Steven Wright (24, 2.68, 2.72)

Reaching the World Series with Kimbrel flailing—struggling with an apparently rectified pitch-tipping issue, it turns out—is an impossible-sounding victory for Boston. Cora has milked strong setup work out of Eovaldi, Porcello, and even Sale. That has sort of overshadowed the fact that Brasier and Barnes have answered the bell, allowing just one run between them, but also looked very shaky—tallying nine walks and 11 strikeouts.

Cora’s use of the starters has alleviated some pressure on the bullpen, but the overall unit hasn’t truly answered the big questions yet. We’re guessing Wright, the now-healthy knuckleballer, slots in over Hembree or Brandon Workman to give Cora more options and more length when he faces down trickier decisions, especially in Dodger Stadium but Cora’s options are much worse than Roberts will have to make. The Dodgers need to get that bullpen working because each reliever is worse than the next.

Defense

The Dodgers will play whatever alignment suits them on a given day, but must account for the challenges presented by Fenway Park. That likely means more Puig plate appearances against lefties than they might otherwise plan for—as he’s undeniably the top option to cover a massive right field against aggressive baserunners—and perhaps more careful thought about who mans the other two spots in Boston. Also, it goes without saying: Fewer passed balls and general catcher issues would be nice. That’s a big concern because an unstable catcher snowballs into an unstable everything and we’re suggesting here right now that if the Dodgers lose this series, that will be the reason.

Betts’ potential second-base experiment in L.A. aside, the Red Sox have repeatedly shown the value of a stellar outfield defense, and they will roll with that elite unit for at least four games of the series, probably more. On the dirt, things are a bit touchier, especially at third base.

Managers

First, it’s worth noting, and celebrating, that two minority managers have led their squads to the pinnacle. Roberts and Cora are also amusingly intertwined with the franchises meeting in this World Series, but we’ll let the trusty broadcast narrative machine take it from there.

As for the actual managing, you can expect steady, front-office driven hands at the wheel. Roberts has taken it easier on the bullpen this time around, and showed some patience in letting Buehler push through choppy waters, but heaven knows he’ll inspire some double takes. Cora’s starter-as-setup-man tactic is an obvious move given his personnel, and is likely to continue, but how he assesses the real-time effectiveness of those options and Kimbrel will be scrutinized, especially if the series pushes him to move off his script.

If you are looking for a matchup that could decide this thing, turn your attention toward the Dodgers’ starters and the Red Sox’s lineup. All the chatter about the dicey Boston bullpen was not wrong, but it may have put the cart before the horse. As many noted during the blitzes of New York and Houston, most relievers can do the job when spotted six runs but rarely is scoring that easy in late October. Given the names, pedigrees, and general modus operandi of the Dodgers’ pitching staff, there are going to be plenty of second turns through that Red Sox lineup. L.A. must avoid out-and-out onslaughts in those middle innings. They obviously have arms that could do that, but will they manage it over this particular week-and-a-half of games?

The 108-win Boston juggernaut needs competence from a group of starting pitchers in flux, and something approximating usual form from the lineup that gave rise to a historic, sometimes unbeatable team but this is October, where pitching wins over hitting and there are very few exceptions to that rule during the Fall Classic.

Back in 1990, the Oakland A’s won 103 games and were heavy favorites to win the World Series. The Athletics won the American League West division by nine games, they then defeated the Boston Red Sox, four games to none, in the American League Championship Series before facing Cincinnati in the World Series. Oakland had Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire, Rickey Henderson and Dave Henderson among other well known bats. That year, the A’s had shaky relief pitching while the Reds featured (Rob Dibble, Randy Myers, Norm Charlton) in what later became known as the Nasty Boys out of the bullpen. Cincinnati shocked the world, not so much by winning, although that was a shock too, but they swept the powerful A’s, 4-0. Nobody gave the Reds even a slight chance.

The point is that hitting is nice but pitching is what wins World Series and it has always been that way, which brings us once again all the way around to value. The Dodgers may not win this series but anyone that thinks they have no chance is mistaken. They have pitching, they have Justin Turner, Manny Machado and Puig among others and they can play and or beat any team in a seven game series. Boston can too, but that Red Sox bullpen is a complete disaster waiting to happen. At this price, there is only one play in our wheelhouse and that would be the Dodgers in a close series.

Also, there is always the possibility that we'll be adding some late add-ons to our slate of games after dinner and we’ll be sure to tweet them out if/when we do.

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