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Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

6:40 PM EST. The last week of the season brings a different dynamic altogether, as many teams are just playing out the string and that applies to these two. In the last week, we want to see signs of freshness, motivation or the lack thereof and also whether the schedule helps or hinders the mental aspect of each game or series. In that regard, the Reds are in a difficult spot here, that being returning home from a 10-game trip, and they have been sleepwalking for most of it.

The Reds were held to two runs or less in eight of those aforementioned 10 games and in their just completed three-game set in Miami, they scored one run in three games combined! Cinci is not one of these young and enthusiastic teams that are playing for jobs next year. They have several veterans but overall they had a horrible start to the year (9-32) and have been trying to rally since. That takes a big toll, hich is being paid up right now. The wind appears to be out completely out of the Reds’ sail, they had an off-day yesterday and they’ll play a team that they rarely see and couldn’t give a rat’s ass about anyway. Cincinnati’s motivation has to be in question for this series.

By contrast, K.C. won two of its last three games and they have scored 55 runs over their last 10 games while Cinci has scored 12 runs over its last 10 games. Also unlike the Reds, the Royals are in complete rebuild mode and have several young players that are thrilled to be playing at this level and want to stay here. What they do in the final week matters.

As for the pitchers, well, the line is influenced greatly and that’s why Cinci is priced so high here but we don’t care, as Matt Harvey (RHP, CIN) has a 1.43 WHIP to go along with a 5.60 ERA over his last five starts. Harvey carried a chip on his shoulder all year after the Mets gave up on him and he might be out of steam too after throwing an unexpected 150 frames this season. Pitching on a cool night in Cincinnati behind a team that is sleepwalking, Harvey and the Reds are a very good fade target here.

Eric Skoglund's awful 5.60 ERA has been inflated by a nightmarish 59% strand rate. His xERA suggests he has the skills to be at least a back-of-the-rotation starter. After issuing 12 walks in 18 MLB IP in 2017, establishing better control in the majors has been the key for him in 2018, and thanks to a solid 68% first-pitch strike rate, he should be able to maintain that. Issuing more first pitch strikes and fewer walks seems like his best shot toward making further skill improvement going forward.

The 25-year-old Skoglund has been terrible, and has probably kept his rotation spot only because the Royals are having a terrible season and extended injuries have kept others out of action. His skills say things should turn around soon, but improvement doesn't always work out that way but at least we know he’s a motivated starter with just 11 starts this season and he’ll be pitching his heart out like he always does. This is not about the pitchers. It’s more about the situation and playing Kansas City to beat Cincinnati and should that occur, we’ll gamble that at this hitter’s paradise, it’ll be by more than one run.

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