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Posted at 10:00 AM EST.

1:10 PM EST. The Diamondbacks were shutout in the opener of this series by Anthony DeSclafani. Yesterday, they scored two runs in seven innings off Matt Harvey. That’s two runs in 14 innings against two starters that are vastly inferior to the starter the Snakes will face here. In total, the D-Backs have scored three runs in 18 frames at this park over the past two days and lost both times.

Luis Castillo (RHP) needed until the end of July to push his ERA below 5.00, but he finally accomplished the feat by allowing a total of nine earned runs in his past six starts. Although Castillo struck out more than three batters in just three of those six outings, he also walked a total of just six batters across that stretch. Facing a D-backs lineup that has struggled against righties this year (.696 OPS), Cinci holds all the value here. Furthermore, his swing and miss rate of 14% is not only elite but it’s well above what one needs to strike out a batter per inning. More K’s are forthcoming. Castillo is now resembling the version of himself that we saw late in 2017. He has put up up a nifty 2.25 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over his last seven starts, and those marks received plenty of support from his skills. His command sub-indicators were even more electric: 15.1% swing and miss rate, 66% first-pitch strikes and 33% ball%. The beautiful part is that Castillo’s outstanding skills are masked in his 4.91 actual ERA and that’s what this market puts emphasis on.

So, the D-Backs are favored here because Zack Godley (RHP) has more market appeal than Luis Castillo and because the Snakes also have more market appeal than the Reds. Godley is capable of throwing a gem but he’s a starter that walks too many guys (60 BB in 130 IP), which has led to a damaging WHIP of 1.43. On the road, Godley has posted a 5.46 ERA with an average of five walks per nine innings. Get Godley on an uncomfortable mound and it hasn’t been pretty. That said, we understand that Godley is capable of dominating a lineup but so is Castillo, the Reds are in better form and most importantly, it is Cinci, not Arizona that is taking back a tag here.

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