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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

8:10 PM EST. We’ll give you a little info on Heath Fillmyer (RHP) because that’s where our money will be but this wager has little to do with backing him. Fillmyer has appeared in seven games for the Royals with three of those coming as a starter. He has a weak BB/K split of 12/15 over 27 innings with an ERA/xERA split of 3.29/4.77 so regression is coming at some point. Fillmyer’s average repertoire was battered in the PCL to the tune of a 5.75 ERA and .303 oppBA before he got here and while there’s nothing plus in the tank, he does get good sinking action on his fastball. His low-80s curve elicits similar grades. On a positive note, the thing that sticks out to us is Fillmyer’s 56%/16%/27% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates, which gives him a fighting chance to pitch well and deep into games.

The real story here is Jake Odorizzi (RHP) who cannot be priced in this range, ever. Other then generating strikeouts, Odorizzi has no other useful skills and has been of MLB’s most hittable pitchers over the past five years. Breaking it down, Odorizzi has walked 47 batters in 112 innings. While his K-rate and swinging strikes are steady, his first-pitch strike rate of 52% is ominous. With additional baserunners, Odorizzi’s significant fly-ball lean of 50% becomes potentially explosive. Jake Odorizzi has a 4.58 ERA, a 5.31 xERA over his last four starts and a 4.86 overall xERA. His 38% hard-contact rate and 54% fly-ball rate in his home starts add even more risk. We get that the Royals. Orioles, White Sox, Marlins and and maybe a few others are tough to wager on but damn, a guy like Odorizzi is even remotely close to being good enough to be priced in this range, as he can lose by a bunch every time he pitches and this one is no exception.

PLEASE NOTE: One of the unique things about our website is that we provide write-ups every single day on every game we post. We’re not sure if everyone understands how time consuming that is and how difficult it is as well but if you do not, please try it one day and you’ll see.

That said, we’re not going to change that. We’ll have write-ups every single day like we always do but we’re also going to have another feature. You see, we post our games usually in the early afternoon or before 1:00 PM EST but there is a lot of movement and other intangibles that occur throughout the day that has influence on what we’re betting. Usually after 6:00 PM EST or thereabouts, we’re going to be adding other games that we’re betting on in a section called “add-ons” for today that we ARE NOT going to write up because it’s too time consuming and with an hour or less before the first game goes off, we just won’t have the time.

This is a feature that you will see on our home page with the other wagers and we’ll also tweet it out when our add-ons have been posted.

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