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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

8:10 PM EST. The Brewers return home from an eight-game trip on the West Coast that started with four games in San Francisco and ended with four games in Los Angeles against the Dodgers. Last night’s finale had to be a bit draining on the Crew also, as they were pounded 21-5 and the game lasted much longer than the Crew would’ve liked. Meanwhile, the Rockies just played four in St. Louis so they’ll make the short flight to Milwaukee to get ready for this series. The pitching matchup heavily favors the visitor too.

German Marquez (RHP) draws a Brewers lineup that owns a 25.1% K% against RHP. Throw in the distinct possibility of fatigue and Marquez could be in for a decent night. The right-hander finished July with a strong outing back at Coors vs. OAK, and his 3.65 ERA and 1.18 WHIP for the month were backed by a 67% first-pitch strike rate, 12% swing and miss rate and 67% grounders. Milwaukee is an average offense vs. RHP, and Marquez owns a 3.15/3.77 away ERA/xERA split and has given up fewer home runs on the road. Pay no attention to Marquez’s 4.82 overall ERA as it means absolutely jack. Underneath that misleading number is a pitcher that has been one of the league’s best for two months running with these intriguing skills: 9.3 K’s/9, 2.7 BB’s/9, 48% grounders and a 2.59 xERA. His ability to keep the ball on the ground at a decent clip, throw strikes and miss bats (120 K’s in 116 innings) is a formula that will always get our attention. Pencil in the Rocks as one of the best value bets on the board today.

Junior Guerra (RHP) will try to avoid throwing a fifth-consecutive non-quality disaster outing when he takes on Colorado's offense. Although the Rockies have been a below-average offense on the road, Guerra’s 4.7 BB’s/9 in July led to a 4.77 xERA and 1.60 WHIP. His hard-contact rate has increased from 34% in 2017 to 43% in 2018 and it’s not improving. In summarizing, what we have with Guerra is a falling first-pitch strike/control damaged WHIP, a jump in fly-ball percentage to 42% to overtake his groundball rate of 37% and four weak outings in a row. We saw a similar pattern with him last season when he was demoted to the pen in September but even that was not enough to save him. Guerra as the chalk is fade material and we’re on it.

PLEASE NOTE: One of the unique things about our website is that we provide write-ups every single day on every game we post. We’re not sure if everyone understands how time consuming that is and how difficult it is as well but if you do not, please try it one day and you’ll see.

That said, we’re not going to change that. We’ll have write-ups every single day like we always do but we’re also going to have another feature. You see, we post our games usually in the early afternoon or before 1:00 PM EST but there is a lot of movement and other intangibles that occur throughout the day that has influence on what we’re betting. Usually after 6:00 PM EST or thereabouts, we’re going to be adding other games that we’re betting on in a section called “add-ons” for today that we ARE NOT going to write up because it’s too time consuming and with an hour or less before the first game goes off, we just won’t have the time.

This is a feature that you will see on our home page with the other wagers and we’ll also tweet it out when our add-ons have been posted.

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