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Posted at 9:45 AM EST.

12:35 PM EST. The Dodgers/Phillies game last ended after all the West Coast games because it took a position player pitching for things to finally be decided. Enrique Hernandez was thrust into duty, of course, because the game was in the 16th inning and the Dodgers had used pretty much everyone who was available. The Phillies had too, but turned to an actual pitcher in starter Vincent Velasquez. Things went about how you might expect after that. The Phillies rallied from three down and then Trevor Plouffe ended it with a three-run blast and the celebration began. While the Phillies were celebrating, the Dodgers were getting the hell outta there in preparation for this very early start. We have mentioned the “walk-off” angle before and that applies here. The walk off angle is to fade the home team the day after a walk-off hit or jack because they usually suffer a letdown. A win over the Dodgers in dramatic fashion intensifies the celebration and subsequent letdown. We also love the pitching matchup.

Walker Buehler (RHP) finds himself in some elite category with his performance during the first half of this season. Underneath his nifty 3.45 ERA and 1.08 WHIP has been a near-elite set of skills: 9.5 K’s/9 1.9 BB’s/9, 55% grounders and a outstanding 3.21 xERA. With his combination of stuff and groundballs, Buehler is a good investment here to do well against a team that has never seen him before.

Jake Arrieta’s (RHP) 3.47 ERA after 106 innings this year is almost the exact same mark as Walker Buehler’s 3.45 ERA but comparable, in terms of skills, they are not. Arrieta’s skills are lousy and he’s just another example of how misleading ERA’s are. In other words, a heaping helping of good fortune has masked his declining skills.

Arrieta’s K-rate has fallen sharply, as has his swing and miss rate, which is now downright puny. Only one of his five offerings has generated a double-digit swing and miss rate in 2018 while the others have ranged from 4-9%. His velocity is still down from pre-2017 level, but it has bounced back a bit. The massive discrepancy between Arrita’s 3.47 ERA and 4.82 xERA has been driven by strand % and hr/f luck. The other column indicates these clearly aren’t the skills of an ace. The return of Arrieta’s groundball lean is a welcomed sight for the Phillies but there are some troubling signs here (Citizens Bank Park: +20% LHB HR; +24% RHB HR). The drastic reduction in his ability to miss bats is the chief concern, as his 74 K’s in 106 innings and 7% swing and miss rate are now far below average. Between a pedestrian overall skill set and looming strand percentage and hr/f regression, don’t expect anything but a bunch of blow-ups in the second half. Incidentally, the Dodgers own a July OPS of .835, and they are at their best against RHPs.

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