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Posted at 9:45 AM EST.

1:10 PM EST. One could spot a small price with the Reds today and still be getting a bargain but we like going for the gusto because the payout is so much better.

Ivan Nova makes his 19th start of the season for the Pirates and brings a 4.38 ERA after 102 innings into this one. Nova’s entire career has been a tale of two different pitchers results-wise. He’s been very good for stretches and/or absolutely horrible for other stretches but this is not a starter to get behind in small parks like Cincinnati’s Great American (you may recall Nova getting crushed constantly at Yankee Stadium too). In fact, Nova is 0-4 at Great American over the past three seasons with a 6.64 ERA and .356 oppBA. He’s allowed 31 hits and 18 runs in 20 frames over four starts at this park over the past three years. A bout with knee inflammation never landed him on the DL but his results seem to indicate lingering issues. There are some bankable skills here - pinpoint control and a slight groundball lean but dude is getting far too much credit here.

Matt Harvey (RHP) has been surprisingly good of late, posting a 1.86 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and a 23:5 K:BB ratio across his past five starts. Additionally, he logged pure quality starts in four of those five starts. While it is too early to assert that the right-hander is now a reliable starter, he has pitched well enough of late to get the nod against a Pirates lineup that has been below average against righties and that is sending out a scared pitcher today. Bank on the Reds going off.

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