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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

10:07 PM EST. Interesting interleague matchup here, as the Diamondbacks have cooled off after a torrid stretch while the Angels have been running cold for well over a week. The Halos will return home from a nine-game trip, where they won just one of their last seven games in Seattle and Oakland combined. Still, we’ve seen the Snakes offense go cold before and it’s as ugly as ugly gets. Arizona scored just four runs in the last two games against the Mets back at Chase Field and now that cooling off nine will face a pitcher they’ve never seen at a rather unfamiliar venue. There’s also one very familiar pitcher with market credibility in Zack Greinke (RHP) against a very unfamiliar starter with little market credibility in Jaime Barria (RHP). The point is that this line is questionable, as the Halos look overpriced and that caught our attention. In other words, steam and/or the oddsmakers trust Arizona is in for a rough game here. 

Zack Greinke has logged a couple of shaky starts in each of his last two games started on the road and there are likely more shaky starts coming. Greinke has seen both his xERA and skills down for the second month running now, including a season-low mark in swing and miss rate (9%). His K-rating could be a bit misleading, as the Angels do a great job of making contact (4th in MLB). Greinke’s overall ERA of 3.87 looks steady but his road ERA/xERA split of 5.40/4.77 does not. Greinke’s average fastball now tops off at just 89 MPH and he also has a 1.41 WHIP since the beginning of May. Zack Greinke has been good for a long time but man, are his skills ever on the decline.

Meanwhile, Jaime Barria looked pretty good in his first five MLB starts before he was shipped back to Triple-A. His skills featured decent command and his command sub-indicators were even better with an 11.5% swing and miss rate, 64% first-pitch strike and 32% ball%. Those skills helped to produce his nifty 2.13 ERA and 1.03 WHIP but so did a fortunate 26% hit rate, 80% strand rate and 4% hr/f though, none of which we can expect him to sustain over the long haul. Still, in three games back since being recalled after a short stint back in the minors, Barria looks even better. He dominated the Rangers with six scoreless innings back at the Big A and he also had good showings against New York in the Bronx and Seattle against a red-hot Mariners offense at Safeco. Barria has a long history of good command in the minors and he also has value as an under-the-radar play here. An Angels’ squad in a foul mood wakes up here.

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