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Posted at 10:15 AM EST.

10:10 PM EST. Steven Matz (LHP) has put up a good 3.53 ERA and 1.23 WHIP after 12 starts, but those marks do not come with good support from his skills. He has been really good with the bases empty but really bad with runners on base. That’s about to change too. His lucky 18% hit rate with the bases empty is the reason his stats have been better than his skills. His poor 5.22 xERA over the last month is further reason to expect a big regression from him soon. Matz logged a fine effort against the Cubs two starts back but one would be hard-pressed to find another usable Matz start over the last six weeks. This one—against the .784-OPS side of Arizona’s left/right splits—isn’t one to consider, as Arizona owns an .888 OPS in June, and the Diamondbacks have picked on Matz before (.1.054 OPS in 32 PA).

If you were to look at Patrick Corbin’s ERA and surface stats over the past month or his last three starts, they do not look like anything special but this starter is on the verge of something big. He has a skills supported 110 K’s in 87 innings. Patrick Corbin has been among the game's most skilled starting pitchers since Opening Day with 12.4 K’s/9, 1.6 BB’s/9 and 47% grounders. His elite rate of strikeouts is backed by a 15% swing and miss rate and he’s doing a great job of getting strike one (65%). He's getting whiffs on one-third of the sliders he is throwing. With his ability to induce grounders and generate strikeouts, Corbin has the goods to continue his great season and he’ll now face a New York nine that is seeing BB gun pellets out there.

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